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Mr Haldane first asked whether the size of the industry meant it posed the same "too-big-to-fail" challenges as the banking industry. The risks are different to banking, he noted, because asset managers do not bear credit, market and liquidity risk on their portfolios. Yet their size means that distress at an asset manager could aggravate frictions in financial markets, for example through forced asset fire-sales: "even if the 'fail' element of too-big-to-fail is a red-herring, the 'big' is not."
The second risk he highlighted was the potential for asset management "to amplify pro-cyclical swings in the financial system and wider economy. If so, it may contribute to the mis-pricing of risk with risk premia undergoing cycles of feast and famine." He described the channels that could generate pro-cyclicality, such as performance benchmarking and accounting and regulatory rules, and presented evidence indicative of pro-cyclical swings in asset allocation and asset prices.
That behaviour has implications for what Mr Haldane referred to as "patient capital": the industry’s potential to provide long-term financing, in the form of equity and long-term debt, to the economy. He said that "a world without equity is likely to be one with poorer risk-sharing and weaker long-term investment." Yet there has been a steady erosion of the industry’s direct holdings of UK equities, with asset managers de-risking as global equity prices fell sharply during the financial crisis – "precisely the circumstances in which pension funds, as long-term investors, could play a stabilising, counter-cyclical role." Such behaviour was "likely to worsen returns to investors" and "amplify cycles in the financial system and economy".
That posed the question of what policy response might best deal with the risks and opportunities posed by asset management: First, he noted that international work is underway to help identify whether asset managers are classified as globally systemic financial institutions. Second, he argued that a natural first line of defence against pro-cyclical swings is macro-prudential policy. Third, he described a number of initiatives underway to encourage the financing of long-term investment. Among these, he highlighted work on securitisation, where, "slowly, the market is being rehabilitated and reconstructed in a different image, helped by public and private sector initiatives to improve transparency".