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[...] The scope for massive “negative game-changers” on a global scale is “considerable”, including “the end of free capital markets”, according to the report, Global trends to 2030: Can the EU meet the challenges ahead?
The think tank warned that ‘business as usual', in terms of economic and social governance, and external resilience, will not be enough for Europe “to hold its ground in a rapidly changing and more demanding world”.
The ESPAS is an inter-institutional EU project, which brings together the experts of the European Commission the European Parliament, the Council and the EU External Action Service to detect trends facing the EU and to propose policy responses.
Three revolutions underway
The EU experts believe that three revolutions are currently paving the way for a “more complex and insecure world”. These are the economic and technological revolution, the social and democratic revolution, and the geopolitical revolution, namely the rise of Asia. [...]
The magnitude of the challenges is such that ESPAS warned about a risk of witnessing the end of free capital markets, along with a massive financial and monetary crisis, a major pandemic, a large-scale energy crisis, and a conflict in the Asia-Pacific region.
The European Political Strategy Centre, the Commission’s in-house think tank, invited the author Don Tapscott to deliver the keynote address for the presentation of the report on Thursday (12 November). In an interview with EurActiv, Tapscott warned that “there is a very real risk that capitalism can be replaced” if governments do not distribute wealth.
Moreover, the increasing political tensions and conflicts across the globe, and the realignment around Rusia, China and the Middle East, could revive “an atmosphere of insecurity and conflict reminiscent of pivotal moments in the early 20th century”, on the eve of the outbreak of the two World Wars. [...]
Europe's 'considerable assets'
[...] Most of the solutions have been already floated. On the economic front, the report highlighted that “a simple Keynesian approach” will not be enough to find the growth formula for the next two decades. Growth “has to be achieved without debt”.
In terms of solutions, the report listed the mobilisation of investment, the completion of the single market, the development of a genuine “energy union”, and enhanced eurozone governance. But it underlines that “more efficient social safety nets are needed to underpin market flexibility and combat rising inequality” in Europe.
A novelty is the “strong case for taking a broader view of economic growth than one based entirely on measuring GDP”, included in the document. Hence, sustainability, access to education and quality of life should also be taken into account, as they can bring not only better quality of life for Europeans but also economic gains.
Meanwhile, the report predicts that, by 2030, all current member states, except Denmark and the UK, “may well have joined the eurozone”. All EU members except these two countries are legally bound to join the common currency, although the appetite has largely decreased across the non-euro members.