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The effects of the global financial crisis, turbulence from the euro area, and weak domestic demand risk prolonging the downturn. This could reduce the country’s long-term growth potential and add to social pressures.
The report argues that monetary policy is a key tool to stimulate the economy in the short term, while the government’s fiscal plan, hard won credibility on the financial markets, and strong institutions allow it the flexibility to adapt to weaker than expected growth. It is appropriate to allow the deficit to shrink more slowly than initially planned to cushion the shock and help households through any downturn. Additional tax increases or spending cuts - beyond those already planned - should not be imposed to compensate for a temporary slowdown, the Survey says.
The Survey outlines what needs to be done to combat inequality by raising the number and quality of jobs, investing in people’s skills and strengthening the welfare system. Among the recommendations are measures to tackle skill shortages, ease the transition from education to the job market and increase incentives to move off benefits and into work.
Active labour market policies need to work hand-in-hand with growth-enhancing structural reforms. The UK’s falling productivity must be raised. Excessively restrictive land-use planning regulations and insufficient investment in R&D and in productive infrastructure, such as transport and energy, are creating obstacles to growth.
The Survey says careful loosening of planning restrictions can boost construction, create jobs, make housing more affordable and encourage investment. Other recommendations include:
Review certain tax rules that may be hampering business growth, such as preferential treatment for small firms which could act as a disincentive for highly productive firms to expand.