Paul N Goldschmidt: Rule Britannia?

09 December 2011

Only time will tell whether the gamble of David Cameron will be only bad or, indeed, very bad for the UK.

If the euro (EU) fails - as it still well might - the UK will see its main trading partners in such a mess that it will be inevitably sucked into abyss, a poor consolation for "having been right". Let us not forget that the tough Prime Minister has forcefully defended in the House of Commons - until last week - the point of view that the survival of the euro was "vital" to the UK. What justifies now the applause when he contradicts himself by placing bets against such an outcome?

If the euro holds together things will be even worse for the UK. The City will lose its (European) preeminence and world financial centre status: do not count on the Americans to remain in London on the basis of language: they do well in Tokyo, Singapore or Shanghai so they can just as well do their business in Frankfurt (in English). They will always prefer a market of some 330 million people to an isolated UK. That bodes extremely well for the London housing market, the Exchequer’s tax receipts and the general British standard of living!

After watching the steady decline of the City (which will occur whatever happens if the UK does not join the euro), the irrelevance of the UK will extend to other emblematic areas: for instance how long can Britain justify a Security Council permanent Member Status when as a delayed result of a more integrated Europe, France will be, in due course, compelled to abandon its seat in favor of the EU. This perspective may indeed well complicate reaching a "euro" agreement in the first place, but it would be foolish to bet on it because the alternative is the implosion of the EU and loss of any possible French ambition to justify its current unwarranted elevated United Nations status.

The British eurosceptics may gloat over the difficulties of the euro, but promoting actively such an outcome will lead the country on the wrong side of the fabled "Salomon's judgement".

In any case let us be fair play and, taking a leaf out of Cameron's rhetoric, wish England "all the best".

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© Paul Goldschmidt