OECD: Global economy facing hesitant and uneven recovery

27 November 2012

The global economy is expected to make a hesitant and uneven recovery over the coming two years. Decisive policy action is needed to ensure that stalemate over fiscal policy in the United States and continuing euro area instability do not plunge the world back into recession.

According to the OECD’s latest Economic Outlook, the euro area crisis remains a serious threat to the world economy, despite recent measures that have dampened near-term pressures. Adjustment of deep-rooted imbalances across the euro area has begun, but much more is needed to ensure long-term sustainability, including structural reform in both deficit and surplus countries. More needs to be done to tackle negative links in the euro area between public finances, bank solvency and risks that any country may have to leave the euro. In the long run, this requires a fully-fledged banking union with fiscal backstops. Recapitalisation of banks should be undertaken where necessary. The Outlook suggests a possible positive scenario could arise if decisive policy actions are taken to improve business and consumer confidence, and to boost growth and jobs worldwide. The rapid and broad implementation of structural reforms, not least in labour and product markets, is key to this scenario.

“The world economy is far from being out of the woods”, OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría said. “The US ‘fiscal cliff’, if it materialises, could tip an already weak economy into recession, while failure to solve the euro area crisis could lead to a major financial shock and global downturn. Governments must act decisively, using all the tools at their disposal to turn confidence around and boost growth and jobs, in the United States, in Europe, and elsewhere.”

Full press release

OECD-Economic Outlook

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