IMF: Greece - An Update of IMF Staff’s Preliminary Public Debt Sustainability Analysis

14 July 2015

Greek debt is expected to peak at close to 200 percent of GDP in the next two years: it has become highly unsustainable, and would need a deeper debt relief than the EU would consider.

Greece’s public debt has become highly unsustainable. This is due to the easing of policies during the last year, with the recent deterioration in the domestic macroeconomic and financial environment because of the closure of the banking system adding significantly to the adverse dynamics. The financing need through end-2018 is now estimated at Euro 85 billion and debt is expected to peak at close to 200 percent of GDP in the next two years, provided that there is an early agreement on a program. Greece’s debt can now only be made sustainable through debt relief measures that go far beyond what Europe has been willing to consider so far.

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