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Brexit or Bremain? That is the question British voters may have to answer in just five months’ time on 23 June, if David Cameron’s renegotiation ends with a deal at the EU summit in February. The result of that renegotiation is at once essentially irrelevant to the question before British voters and quite crucial to how they will answer it.
It’s irrelevant because the strategic arguments of vital national interest for staying in the EU, made already by two former Conservative leaders, John Major and William Hague, remain valid, however small the fruits of what is anyway a modest renegotiation. Britain’s place in the world for the next 20 years cannot be decided by whether Cameron gets a four-year opt-out on paying benefits to Polish workers.
On the other hand, it’s crucial because many voters have not made up their minds. When pollsters ask the undecided what they would think were Cameron to return from Brussels with a substantial reform package, there’s a majority for staying; if he returns with peanuts, they’re for leaving. Since voters who have already made up their minds are split roughly 50:50, this soft middle will determine the outcome.
Whatever happens, the result is likely to be a triumph of fear over fear. The question is: which fear will prevail? The fear of being dragged further into a nascent European superstate, with the attendant loss of sovereignty, democracy, identity and control of national borders? Or that of being left out in the cold, like Norway or Switzerland, with the rules set by an EU in which you have no voice? [...]
Most of British business has so far sat on its hands, although according to a Financial Times survey, only 1% of British business leaders are for leaving. Captains of industry say they were given a clear message from the government to hold off until after the renegotiation.
Yesterday, Cameron effectively reversed this, urging business leaders in Davos: “If you believe, like I do, that Britain is better off in a reformed European Union, then … help me make that case for Britain to stay.” This despite the fact that we don’t know the result of the renegotiation. [...]
In a YouGov poll, respondents put “control of borders and immigration from the EU” (52%) and “benefits EU migrants are eligible for” (46%) as the two top issues for Cameron’s renegotiation. No others came close. [...]
An in-depth analysis identifies two key groups of swing voters, some 7.5 million labelled “Hearts vs Heads” and some 9.5 million charmingly called “Young Apathetic Middle”. Hearts vs Heads will be swayed by rational fear.
The balance of the economic argument clearly is for staying. It’s not that nice being Norway: as Cameron pithily puts it, you pay but have no say. A very senior former trade negotiator told me he doubts Britain could even be sure of a good deal for access to the single market. The EU has used its giant market weight to negotiate favourable free trade deals with 200 countries. Britain on its own would not secure that, and there would be years of uncertainty while arrangements accumulated over 40 years unravelled. [...]
But this cannot be only “project fear”. Research shows that undecided younger voters also associate positive things with Britain’s membership of the EU, including “prosperity”, “opportunity for the next generation” and a non-specific “stronger”. The in campaign must appeal to hope as well as rational fear.
Here, we need to hear from our European partners what positive role they see for Britain. The argument for European union in the 21st-century hinges on the continent’s ability to hold its own against the world’s giants. That depends on having an effective foreign and security policy. How can you do that without fully engaging one of the two European states that has the experience of being a world power, a permanent seat on the UN security council and, like France, is still prepared to use hard power?
To succeed in the 21st-century Europe needs not one but two hard cores: an economic and monetary one, built around Germany and the eurozone, and a diplomatic and security one, including Britain. If anyone in continental Europe or north America agrees, now is the time to say so, loud and clear.