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Let’s be frank: David Cameron was never going to achieve a fundamental restructuring of Britain’s relationship with the EU. Certainly not in a few months.
Britain is a member of the single market, with all of the advantage that entails — and the disadvantages too. Given the density of existing treaties and regulations, it was always going to be difficult for Britain to keep everything that it likes about Europe and discard everything else. In any case, these are all treaties and regulations that the UK itself negotiated long ago.
But if the British wanted to be reassured that they will never be treated as identikit Europeans, then the UK prime minister has achieved something important: exemption from the “ever closer union among the peoples of Europe”. Congratulations, now we know: you are special.
The second concession — assurances for non-euro countries — was on offer in the EU fiscal pact agreed in 2012. If Britain missed that opportunity and the City of London gets its pound of flesh now, fine.
The third concession — giving parliaments a so-called red card to stop overweening directives — is also substantial, but will rarely be used. The majority of parliaments would have to object to something that the majority of governments had agreed.
But those governments command majorities in their own parliaments. They are unlikely to contradict themselves.
Toughest was always going to be the fourth issue: migrant workers. How do you limit migration while simultaneously respecting the principles of freedom of movement and non-discrimination? The largest group potentially affected are my fellow Poles, one of Britain’s largest ethnic minorities. [...]
With this crafty compromise, the EU has thrown Britain a lifeline, and it should be firmly grasped. Mr Cameron secured a better offer than many, myself included, would have predicted. I doubt it can be improved upon, even after another self-inflicted British wound in the form of a lost referendum.
The UK government should have a contingency plan for both a referendum lost and a referendum won. I cannot advise on the former, except to say that it is important to look at Norway, which has to abide by EU rules in order to have access to the single market, while having no influence on their formulation. But if Mr Cameron wins, he should immediately set out on another project: to return the UK to its rightful position as a leader of the EU. Britain would need to show that it cares about the union’s survival, reform and success. [...]
Preventing the continent of Europe from uniting to the exclusion of Britain was a principle of British foreign policy for half a millennium. Wars were fought over it. The world would gasp in disbelief if the British now voluntarily excluded themselves, and this over social benefits for people who do not want them. Having lost an empire, the British have been at a loss for a new role. There is another nascent empire, just across the water, yearning to be led. If only the British would realise it.
Full article on Financial Times (subscription required)