|
|
First, a referendum result where there is a small majority to remain an EU member, or one based on a small turnout (or won thanks to strong remain votes in areas such as Scotland or London) would leave Eurosceptics in no mood to concede defeat. If anything they would see such a result as a tactical defeat, not a strategic one. [...] Anger and frustrations at the EU and the other factors noted throughout this pamphlet could soon refuel support for withdrawal. This could happen if the EU were too slow to deliver on the promised renegotiation or the changes promised take longer to emerge leaving British voters feeling cheated. Support for UKIP could remain high thanks to Conservative and Labour divisions over Europe and other political matters. Having watched its leader campaign to stay in the EU, the Conservative Party’s membership may counter by electing a Eurosceptic leader to follow David Cameron. Calls for another in/out referendum could soon build.
Second, a new EU Treaty or transfer of powers to the EU would trigger the referendum requirement of the European Union Act 2011. While this depends on the interpretation of a minister that a major transfer of power is proposed, this does not prevent the Commons rebelling and voting for a referendum. [...] Any actual vote on changes to the relationship might be on the technicalities of transferring certain powers, but the debate and especially a rejection would open up the entire issue of the UK’s continued membership. The prospect of a new treaty to approve the restructuring of the Eurozone would certainly reopen the debate, possibly leading to calls for the UK to seek another renegotiated relationship. [...]
Third, should the UK vote to leave then further referendums can also not be ruled out. A small majority to leave, as with a small majority to remain, could lead to calls for a re-run of the vote, especially if some form of economic shock accompanied the result and saw opinion polls quickly register a switch to support for remaining in the EU. The vote, it is important to remember, does not bind Parliament and the UK would not withdraw from the EU until agreement was reached with the rest of the EU under the process set out under Article 50 TEU. [...]
Fourth, once outside the EU the new UK-EU relationship could come under pressure from changes by the EU. Should the deal be compromised by changes in the EU or the UK then the British Government could call a referendum as Switzerland did over changes relating to the free movement of people. This could be due to wider changes to the EU-EFTA/EEA relationships. Some Eurosceptics also see EFTA or the EEA as a stepping-stone away from the EU, with a future referendum potentially called in an attempt to cut links with EFTA or the EEA. Given the political arguments about the UK’s membership of the ECHR a referendum could be called on that issue as well. Should the UK fail to reach an exit agreement with the EU or opt for some form of traditional trade deal, then it is possible that at a later date it will consider moving back towards the EU through membership of EFTA or the EEA (or reformed versions of them). Any such move, along with any attempt to rejoin the EU, could trigger a referendum.
Finally, the European question could trigger other referendums within the UK over EU matters. A frequently foreseen outcome of a vote to leave the EU is one where Scotland votes to stay but the rest of the UK – and especially areas of England – vote to leave. Scottish nationalists would then use this as the basis on which to call a second Scottish independence referendum. [...] The possibility of a majority of the rest of the UK voting to leave the EU if Scotland left the UK could see pressure build for a second Scottish independence referendum. If Scotland then voted to leave the UK then this would be followed by a vote in the remaining UK (rUK) over continued membership of the EU.