|
|
In an interview with the Guardian, Padoan predicted a British departure might even lead to pressure for France to leave the EU in the 2017 presidential elections, saying: “We are already seeing a domino effect with anti-European parties gaining a lot of support, starting in France.”
Like Schäuble, Padoan warned Britain would find it complicated to negotiate free-trade deals with Brussels from outside the EU. He said: “Whenever you break an agreement you know what you are going to lose, you do not know what you are going to gain in the next agreement.”
Schäuble told BBC1’s Andrew Marr Show: “We would have years of the most difficult negotiations, which would be very difficult for the EU as well. And for years we would have such insecurity that would be a poison to the economy in the UK, the European continent and for the global economy as well.”
Padoan also used the interview to set out a radical agenda for far greater EU integration, including a European finance minister to build a growth-oriented Eurozone economy that puts as much focus on creating jobs as on controlling inflation.
He also proposed an immigration fund financed by bonds; a deeper single market; a European unemployment insurance fund; a common banking insurance fund; and revised common fiscal rules that are as tough on countries like Germany that run persistent trade surpluses as those running excessive budget deficits.
His plans, set out in a major paper issued by the Italian finance ministry, suggest that the UK, if it does vote to stay in the EU, faces a renewed battle to hold back the demand for closer union as centre-left governments call for greater integration and growth oriented policies. [...]
But he suggests this reform programme will be threatened by a British departure. “From a political perspective, Brexit would be the demonstration that if you have an anti-European programme you can implement that programme,” he said. “It would be a message sent to many anti-European parties all across Europe and to some anti-European governments. It would have especially in the medium term quite dramatic implications.” [...]