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A former trade union leader and a Conservative prime minister have never before put pen to paper together. [...] But we are united in our conviction that Britain, and Britain’s workers, will be better off in a reformed Europe than out on our own.
While staying in Europe offers workers in the UK the best prospects of rising prosperity, leaving poses what we call a triple threat: to working people’s jobs, to their wages and to the prices we all pay in the shops. Let us take each in turn.
First, the risk to jobs. Even some prominent campaigners on the leave side are now agreed on this – leaving the European Union will cause an economic shock. Let’s be clear about what that means: an economic downturn; people losing their jobs and livelihoods; parents left unable to provide for their families. An independent estimate by the accountancy firm PwC states that unemployment could rise to 8% by 2020, compared with just 5% if we stay in the EU.
That’s bad enough, but there would be a longer-term consequence too. As last week’s Treasury analysis showed, Britain’s GDP will be permanently lower than it would otherwise be – around 6% lower by 2030, the equivalent of £4,300 for every household in the country. So let there be no doubt about what leaving the EU means: an immediate shock, and then a permanently poorer country.
That leads us to the second threat: wages. It’s clear there will be long-term damage for our country’s productivity, caused by the second-rate, more restrictive trade relationship we would have to try to negotiate if we left our home market of 500 million consumers. Less open trading leads to lower productivity.
And we must be equally clear about what that means for working people: even if they keep their jobs, their wages will be lower than they would otherwise have been.
[...] being in Europe has helped to deliver many of the crucial rights that underpin fairness at work. Paid holidays, maternity rights, equal treatment for the millions of people working part-time, protections for agency workers, even equal pay for women at work: all are guaranteed by Europe and all could be at risk if we left.
Of course, slower growth will feed through to the public finances too. It would hit our tax revenues, generating less money to pay the wages of public sector workers such as nurses and teachers. So we face a vicious circle that will hurt the lowest-paid workers in every part of our economy – public and private sector alike.
The third threat is rising prices. It’s quite simple: most independent experts agree that leaving Europe would put pressure on the pound. Indeed, we’re seeing that pressure already as fears grow of Britain leaving the EU. A weak pound means more expensive goods and higher inflation, pushing up the prices of the weekly shop, clothes, petrol – anything that we import from other countries. So we are likely to see the cost of living going up, just as wages are being squeezed and jobs lost. That is the threat for families already struggling to make ends meet – and a risk that working people and the poorest in our country simply cannot afford. [...]
As you make that choice, remember this: on the leavers’ side there is a real lack of credible experts to support their case. And there is a troubling dogma in their rigid belief that, in the face of all evidence to the contrary, taking these risks will be worth the pain they will cause. The leavers now say they want the UK to be like Albania, which even the Albanian prime minister says is “weird”, because his country wants to be more like us. [...]
For the sake of every worker in Britain, we urge you: vote to remain.