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While conceding that the City would retain many of its traditional advantages even in the event of the UK leaving the EU, Mr Sapin said that Britain could not expect that a Brexit vote would be “without effect” for London as a global financial centre. [...]
“French banks have told me it would have consequences for them, and some activities which were the rule for French banks would not continue the way that they were; that is what the French banks have told me,” he said.
Mr Sapin did not name names, but France has a growing footprint in the City, both from the number of French expat bankers working on trading floors and exchanges and the presence of major players like Societe Generale, BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole.
The impact Brexit may also not be confined to French banks, with Stuart Gulliver, the HSBC chief executive, warning last month that his bank could move up to 1,000 staff to Paris from its global banking and markets business in the event of a ‘Leave’ vote. [...]
“It would be a shock for the rest of Europe, for the European economies, which are showing signs of recovery. We think that this trend is going to strengthen,” he said.
On a positive note, Mr Sapin said that a medium-term “solution was on the table” to enable Greece to access its latest bailout funds while retaining IMF support in a deal that has set Berlin and Washington at loggerheads over the need to grant Athens some measure of debt relief.
While reiterating France’s position that the eurozone must rapidly move towards deeper fiscal and political union, Mr Sapin said that France was determined to ensure that non-eurozone countries “found their space” in a more tightly integrated EU.
Asked if he believed Britain's departure from the European Union would cause a domino effect, Mr Sapin said it would give a boost to populist political movements that have gathered force since the eurozone crisis. [...]