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Conclusions
Trade and Commerce
1. What sort of post-Brexit trading relationship the UK might negotiate with the EU is the question that needs to be answered before any robust evaluation of the likely impact of leaving the EU can be made. For many people, it is the main question that will determine which way they decide to vote. It became apparent during our visit to Brussels that there is an unwillingness to discuss options for UK-EU relations in the event of a vote to leave ahead of the referendum. This is probably inevitable. The future relationship will be the product of a negotiation process between the UK and the remainder of the EU. Nobody has the authority to state in advance of that negotiation process what the outcome will be, including the extent of Single Market access for UK firms and the extent of regulatory compliance. However, it means that one of the most important questions in the minds of many remains unanswered and votes will be cast on the perception of risk and the balance of probability.
2. Clearly negotiations cannot exclusively prioritise the interests of Northern Ireland to the detriment of other parts of the UK. But neither can UK-level interests be allowed to dominate the UK’s bargaining position at the expense of Northern Ireland. In the event of a vote to leave the EU, it is imperative that Northern Ireland’s economic priorities, such as gaining a good deal for agricultural and manufactured goods, are given due prominence by the UK Government in any subsequent negotiations. However, the likelihood of this cannot be guaranteed. [...]
The Border and Cross-Border Issues
5. Outside the EU, the UK would be free to negotiate a special status for Irish citizens: Professor Dagmar Schiek, Jean Monnet Chair of EU Law and Policy at Queens University Belfast, told us that there is some latitude within the EU’s rules to allow some bilateral agreement between the Republic of Ireland and the UK over the border. However, she emphasised that it would require the remaining EU members to agree to this: “Under EU law, any future relation between the Republic of Ireland and the UK would be subject to agreement not only with the Republic of Ireland, but with the whole of the EU”.
6. There must be doubts about the extent to which, in the event of a Brexit, the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic could be effectively policed and the disruption to those who cross the border for work or study would be considerable. However, imposing security checks for those travelling between parts of the UK would also be highly undesirable. In the event of a Brexit, an arrangement that maintains a soft land border between Northern Ireland and the Republic but which does not see restrictions imposed on travel within the UK would need to be a priority.
7. The peace process has ultimately been successful because of the commitment of successive UK and Irish governments and the willingness of politicians and the communities they represent to put aside past differences sufficiently to allow Northern Ireland to be governed peacefully. It is clear that the relationships that both the Northern Ireland Executive and the UK Government have with the Irish Government continue to be very strong, and we expect that would continue to be the case regardless of the outcome of the referendum.
8. If crime is increasingly cross-border in nature, policing must also be cross-border and the British Government must ensure that the PSNI has the maximum possible access to international collaborative mechanisms. This should include, though not be limited to, the existing EU mechanisms. In the event of a vote to leave the EU, access to these, or equivalent measures, should be included in any deal between the EU and UK.
9. We have not received any evidence to suggest that Northern Ireland’s electricity market would be detrimentally affected by a Brexit.