|
|
[...] In her opening speech to the party conference in Birmingham, Mrs May sought to offer some clarity and to give a punchy account of what happens next. The famed Article 50 which sets the clock running on the two-year withdrawal process will be triggered by the end of March. There will also be a “Great Repeal bill” introduced in parliament, seeking to prepare the end of the supremacy of EU law. Business, she implied, will almost certainly have to get used to the idea that the UK is leaving the EU single market while seeking to combine control of its borders with a new — as yet — unspecified trading relationship with the EU.
What is the hardline-sounding prime minister up to?
It is important to remember that her positioning is aimed at convincing a number of disparate groups that she is serious about Brexit. Mrs May was a reluctant Remainer in the referendum rather than an advocate of Leave. The majority of voters who backed leaving the EU need to be reassured that the new prime minister will implement it. The more Eurosceptic Conservative MPs and activists similarly needed soothing.
Mrs May is also targeting her robust message at the badly divided 27 member states of the EU, making it clear that while Britain leaving the EU can happen nicely, she is ready for the alternative.
Of course, the targeting of her message omits the large number of Britons who did not vote for Brexit and who are deeply worried about the likelihood of the UK leaving the single market for some mystery arrangement. She is already having to deviate from pleasing “everyone” even though the paint is barely dry on her new slogan.
Beyond all the spin, counter-spin and recriminations, what the government is seeking to achieve is best characterised as follows: despite saying that there is no such thing as a choice between so-called Soft Brexit and Hard Brexit, ministers are trying to secure a softish Brexit with control of borders — via work quotas — and a mutually beneficial bespoke agreement on trade and finance.
Simultaneously, to demonstrate resolve and also in case it is needed, they are preparing for no deal. This is a fairly standard negotiating technique widely used in business and diplomacy.
The hope (perhaps too wishful, but it depends on events on the continent) is that an EU showing signs of strain in relation to migration and the condition of some European banks, decides to settle reasonably at the behest of a realistic German government.
For those moderate Remainers who accept the result and do not want to re-run the referendum, the implication should be clear. Brexit is going to happen one way or the other. The sooner moderate Leavers and moderate Remainers make common cause, and collaborate on agitating for a compromise solution, the better.
Full article on Financial Times (subscription required)