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“We have to consider the speech to constitute a basic negotiation objective, and its announcements, with its inherent contradictions, to be a part of a negotiating tactic pursued by the U.K. government,” the authors write, pointing in particular to May’s rejection of the single market while wanting “the freest possible access to it.”
They go on to describe the various options available to the U.K. and the EU, ranging from a Ukraine-style “Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement” to simply falling back on World Trade Organization rules.
“The fact remains,” the authors say, “that for the U.K, in a context in which the EU remains the largest integrated market, the second largest world exporter after China and the second largest importer after the USA, the EU makes for a very desirable trading partner.”
The U.K.’s exit from the EU shouldn’t come as a surprise, the authors suggest as “England, in particular, has always been quite unenthusiastic and un-inclined towards European political integration.”
They also attribute the decision to leave the EU partly as a result of “significant media putting forward a narrative about the conspiracies of Brussels to create a European super-state, or the alleged absence of democratic accountability of the European institutions.”
Discussions on draft EU laws are set to continue on issues ranging from banking standards to migration, even if the U.K. is on its way out, presenting possible challenges to negotiators, according to the report. It says that even though the Lisbon Treaty requires EU governments to behave well toward one another, there’s no way of forcing this.
The report points out that the biggest disruption in terms of the law “will mostly be of concern to the U.K.,” rather the EU. “U.K. legislators will certainly have to foresee a new legal regime for the days following the departure.”
In terms of the date of the U.K.’s exit, the MEPs suggest that the beginning of 2019 is the obvious choice. “If the withdrawal negotiations are not completed prior to the 2019 [European Parliament] elections, they will also have to be held in the U.K., as it would still be a member state.”
It’s not all doom and gloom, however. “The shock of Brexit seems to have reinforced the desire of permanence in the Union in almost all member states. The Union would thus seem to have emerged stronger.
“Brexit, if it finally happens — as it seems to be the case at the time of writing — should be expected to stimulate reforms, and to force the Union to advance in its integration process.”
Brexit and the European Union: General Institutional and Legal Considerations