Vox EU: The future of pro-EU sentiment in the UK
05 November 2018
The existence of large nationwide swings in sentiment that have little to do with either seasoning or cohort effects suggests that demographic trends are unlikely to be the decisive determinants of future changes in European sentiment.
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First, both ageing and cohort effects are present in the data.
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Second, UK voters grow more Eurosceptical as they age. This is consistent with studies showing that individuals as they age become less ‘open’ or more ‘conservative’ (e.g. Donellan and Lucas 2008).
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Third, the most UK recent cohorts are more pro-EU than their immediate (baby boomer) predecessors. This has been referred to, variously, as the Ryanair, Bologna Process, and Italian barista effect. However, the earliest cohorts, which lived through WWII as adults, are also relatively pro-EU. Thus, the attitudes of cohorts trace out a U-shaped pattern.
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Fourth, education is positively associated with pro-Europeanism. Because average educational attainment has increased noticeably over the period, this effect is important. Most of the pro-Europeanism of relatively recent cohorts is accounted for by greater educational attainment.
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Fifth, there have also been large nationwide swings in sentiment toward the EU over time that have little do with seasoning or cohort effects.
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Conclusion
In the UK’s 2016 Brexit referendum, young voters were more likely than their elders to support remaining in the EU. We have shown that this pattern reflects both seasoning and cohort effects. Recent cohorts are more pro-European than their predecessors, but voters also become more Eurosceptical as they age. Much of the pro-Europeanism of recent cohorts is associated with greater education. Our baseline estimates suggest that age and cohort effects together have reduced pro-EU sentiment by three percentage points over the past 40 years. This effect will be reversed by the middle of the present century, assuming that the attitudes of future cohorts resemble those of the currently young.
But uncertainty about future time effects dwarfs all of the above. Understanding what lies behind them – macroeconomic conditions, surges of immigration, or other factors – should be at the top of the agenda for those concerned to understand the evolution of UK public opinion toward the EU.
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