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Who’d have thought it? After some forty years of membership during which hardly any attention was paid to European elections, we finally have one about which people care. Ironically, it’s an EU election taking place after we were meant to have left, and potentially soon before we will in fact leave. Nevertheless, it has piqued our interest.
And so, what might the coming vote signify and what might its effects be? In what follows, a range of contributors attempt to answer the most important questions about the elections. Their remit was simple: to provide for all those interested, a guide to what to look out for and what the implications might be.
The answers, as the contributions underline, are many and various. Whilst we in the UK might, understandably, focus on the implications of the vote for our own politics, it is worth remembering that it will have important implications for the EU too. And, of course, in keeping with the complex two-level nature of European integration, these are likely to feed back into the Brexit process itself.
Here in the UK, the fact of having a nationwide election – albeit one held under unique proportional rules – will allow us to take a snapshot, however imperfect, of public opinion. For one thing, we will be reminded (as if we needed it) how divided our country is as different parts of the UK respond in different ways to the questions put to them. For another, we get to take the political temperature, which, as Sunder Katwala explains, has been at fever pitch.
We will also get, again imperfectly, a sense of where the country stands on Brexit. Like it or not, convincingly or not, many people will portray the election as a proxy Brexit referendum.
How the votes stack up between Leave- and Remain-supporting parties will be the object of much attention, albeit that the election is far from a perfect cipher for another referendum. Finally, we may learn more about the health of the traditional parties and the prospects of their newborn challengers. And the European elections represent a particular challenge for incumbents, not only because of the proportional system used, but also because the European issue divides people, as Paula Surridge illustrates, along a value dimension that has so profoundly disrupted our politics over the last few years.
As for the EU itself, the elections will (obviously) have a bearing on the composition of the European Parliament. They will determine the balance of power – between pro-European and nationalist-populist forces, and between left and right – and influence important decisions taken about key appointments to top EU jobs and the future agenda for Europe. All things being equal, British MEPs will play a part in those debates, even if their tenures do not last much longer than it takes for these initial decisions to be made. We face the prospect of British MEPs tilting the balance of power in a certain direction for long enough to shape key decisions, while giving up their seats before the consequences of those decisions become clear.
This will all feed back into the Brexit process itself. Should, for instance, the Brexit Party gain a large number of seats this may change the incentives of European leaders when deciding about whether to prolong British membership. A more fragmented and polarised Parliament might slow down the process of agreeing any a future trade deal. What is more, a new Parliament composed of a larger number of eurosceptics and critics of globalisation will hardly make the approval of any such deal with the UK any easier.
So there is much to play for. We hope that what follows represents a clear and accessible guide to what to look out for, and what it might mean.