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The center-right politicians who have long ruled in Brussels now see a clear path to holding onto power — turning the fight over the EU's top jobs into a two-person contest: German Chancellor Angela Merkel vs. French President Emmanuel Macron.
And they expect Merkel to win, of course.
If Macron, who is working with European Liberals to build a new progressive force, proves unwilling to cut a deal that lets the center-right European People's Party (EPP) claim the European Commission presidency, the conservatives are hoping Merkel will help steamroll him and instead form a coalition with the center-left Social Democrats and the Greens.
As EPP officials describe it, such a coalition would allow them to claim the Commission presidency, the EU's top job, for Manfred Weber, the EPP candidate, while awarding the Parliament presidency to the Greens, and giving the Social Democrats a choice of either the European Council presidency or the position of high representative for foreign affairs.
If Macron and the Liberals get on board, the Council presidency would go to them. If not, Merkel could be generous and effectively let the French designate the next president of the European Central Bank, or she could teach the upstart Macron a lesson and ice out the Liberals.
Whether the conservatives' theory will fly will become clear in the weeks ahead. According to the EU's new parliamentary math, at least the numbers would add up. [...]
The conservatives are betting that the Socialist coordinators, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa, will recognize that the only way they can secure a big prize is by backing an EPP-led coalition.
But bulldozing the president of France may prove impossible. Having the support of Germany and France, the EU's largest countries, is generally seen as essential for any incoming Commission chief. While Merkel and then-British Prime Minister David Cameron initially opposed Jean-Claude Juncker for Commission president in 2014, it is unclear that he could have won had Merkel not ultimately come around.
For his part, Macron, seeing the same math, has undertaken an aggressive outreach campaign to the Socialists in hopes of isolating the EPP in exactly the way the conservatives aim to isolate him.
With Merkel's governing coalition currently in a precarious position in Berlin, it's unclear just how much political strength she will be able to bring to Brussels in support of the EPP. Merkel remains the EU's most influential national leader, but she has declared that this is her last term and already relinquished leadership of her party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU). If her coalition collapses, she could face retirement sooner than expected. [...]