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In years past, the center-right European People’s Party was strong enough in the Council and the European Parliament to muscle in many of its candidates. This time around, the political divisions are stark. Power in the Council is split roughly into quarters — between the EPP, Socialists, Liberals and none of the above.
What makes the political math so ugly is that while no single political force can dominate the discussion, there’s no shortage of veto points. Both the EPP and the new alliance between the Liberals and French President Emmanuel Macron control enough votes in the Council to block its most important decision: the appointment of a new European Commission president. [...]
The result is a deeply unsettled, potentially volatile selection process that could drag on through the summer or beyond, even as European Council President Donald Tusk said he is still hoping to get a deal by the end of this month.
Franco-German stumble
When it comes to what Tusk and other Brussels insiders are calling Plan B — choosing a Commission president from a small pool of eligible and interested prospects — nothing gets easier.
Germany and France, the EU’s big two, have traditionally spearheaded the decision-making process, and the support of Chancellor Angela Merkel and Macron is widely regarded as a prerequisite for any deal.
Merkel, however, is now serving her last term, and her influence so far has been undercut by her need to show allegiance to Weber, both as a German and member of her EPP family. Meanwhile, Macron has stumbled in his initial efforts to upend the EU establishment, with Nathalie Loiseau, his choice to lead the new centrist-liberal group in Parliament, forced to withdraw from contention after she angered the group's rank-and-fil.
Even if Germany and France remain the most influential voices, the stakes of the leadership talks are so high that the interests and views of all EU countries must be taken into consideration — including the outliers that under other circumstances might be more easily pressured into accepting a plan.
While the U.K., which is consumed by Brexit, has pledged to play a constructive role, and essentially go along with whatever majority decision is reached within the Council, it is unclear a consensus will be reached. It is also unclear if the new British prime minister, who could take office before the EU deliberations are complete, will take the same approach as Theresa May. [...]
Time pressure
The Council is also facing extraordinary pressure to come to an agreement on the top jobs before the new Parliament sits for its first plenary session in Strasbourg on July 2 — a fact that many EU leaders, including Merkel, only seemed to fully digest in recent days.
The Parliament is obligated to select its president, and if the Council has not settled on its broader package by then, the legislature’s decision will severely restrict EU leaders’ options, particularly in terms of whom it chooses to succeed Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker.
The EU treaties require the Council to take into account the Parliament election result, but also to seek balance among political parties, geography and demography. The leaders have also said they want to improve gender parity in the EU’s upper ranks, meaning their ideal scenario would place women in two of the top four posts.
Adding even more complexity to the process is a simultaneous effort in Parliament by the three big party alliances, along with the Greens, to negotiate a joint policy agenda.
The Greens, despite a surge in numbers, don’t have any leader on the European Council and are still smaller than the others, so they are unlikely to end up with a top job even as their priorities, particularly in relation to climate change, are increasingly resonant with voters. As a result, the Greens have dug in their heels in the negotiations, demanding more ambitious environmental policies, including more aggressive efforts to cut emissions. [...]