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The Continent's dominant political force lost seats in last month's European Parliament election and Manfred Weber, its candidate for European Commission president, has been rebuffed by EU leaders including Emmanuel Macron. Weber has not even been able to get a majority of his fellow MEPs to support him.
As long as they stand by Weber, EPP leaders face a battle for the top job they are likely to lose. The key questions for senior EPP leaders, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel, is how long to stick with the Bavarian MEP and whether to switch to another candidate to ensure the party retains its grip on the Commission presidency, currently held by Jean-Claude Juncker.
The EU's leadership deliberations are effectively frozen until the EPP decides how to proceed.
Despite its losses in last month's EU-wide vote, the EPP forms the biggest group in the Parliament and, in Merkel, has Europe's most important leader in its ranks. It's close to impossible for any would-be Commission president to get into office without the support of the EPP.
The battle over the top job has also developed into a Franco-German standoff — with French President Macron publicly questioning Weber's credentials and German officials incensed by his challenge.
A key moment in the EPP's deliberations comes on Wednesday night, when Merkel convenes a dinner in Berlin with Weber, German conservative leaders Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer and Markus Söder, and the EPP President Joseph Daul.
For the moment, the EPP is publicly standing by its man — even as a European Council summit on Sunday evening threatens to end the same way as the last one, without agreement on who should take the Commission presidency and other top EU jobs.
EU officials and diplomats expect the Berlin gathering to offer public support to Weber. Both Kramp-Karrenbauer and Söder have given the Bavarian vocal backing this week so it would be surprising to see them abruptly change course.
But the key issue for all participants is when and how to proceed with a Plan B — coming up with alternative EPP candidates for the Commission presidency who would be acceptable to EU leaders and the Parliament. [...]