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[...]Ursula von der Leyen is correct to be more ambitious for democratic and institutional reform. Her prospects are good. She seems to realise that it is not enough to will the ends without the means, and that constitutional developments take a long time to germinate, foster and harvest. [...]
A NEW CONSTITUTIONAL CONFERENCE
The main vehicle for reformists is the Conference on the Future of Europe, first suggested by Emmanuel Macron, adopted by the European Parliament and then taken up by Von der Leyen. Specific responsibility for this exercise, which is to start in the summer of 2020 and last for two years, is given to Vice-President Dubravka Suica (Croatia/EPP). [...]
The key figure in inter-institutional relations will be Vice-President Maros Sefcovic (Slovakia/S&D) who has drawn the long straw of managing relations with Parliament and the General Affairs Council (which is supposed to prepare and follow up decisions of the European Council). [...]
These three Central European vice-presidents form the team that will lead the college’s institutional reform agenda. Treaty revision is not mentioned in Von der Leyen’s distribution of portfolios, so one assumes she intends to look after this herself. The President will also have oversight of whatever budgetary reform can be conjured up by Johannes Hahn (Austria/EPP).
It is reassuring that Paolo Gentiloni (Italy/S&D) should be able to drive the political agenda on EMU and taxation. His is a portfolio ripe for a reformer. He should be able to accelerate the introduction of a European bank deposit insurance scheme and to trigger a change in the decision-making procedure from unanimity to qualified majority voting (QMV) over tax policy. He would be wise to reverse the current slide of the European Stability Mechanism into irrelevance and prepare it instead to becoming the proto federal treasury of the Union. Gentiloni should prove to be a heavy counterweight to the conservative Valdis Drombovskis (Latvia/EPP) who has been recycled by Von der Leyen as one of three ‘Executive Vice-Presidents’. The Conference on the Future of Europe should be an interesting place to challenge the fiscal conservatism of the Germans and their hangers-on in the ‘Hanseatic League’. [...]
AIMING HIGH
As a first step, it is critical to establish the mandate and organisation of the Conference on the Future of Europe. It is expected that the tireless federalist Guy Verhofstadt MEP will chair the Conference. [...]
The central question for the Conference and the subsequent Convention is to know whether the EU is ready to install a tier of effective government up above that of the member states. They will need to demonstrate how the emergence of federal governance can protect the interests of the smaller states and respect the principles of subsidiarity and proportionality. Measures must be proposed to ensure that increased executive authority goes hand in hand with greater parliamentary accountability. [...]
The reluctance of national governments to transfer relevant powers upwards to the EU, or to endow the EU with appropriate assets, looks increasingly archaic and counter-productive. [...]
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