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[...]Mr. Kurz’s conservative People’s Party won more than 37 percent of the vote, according to preliminary results released Sunday — putting him comfortably in first place, but with not enough votes to be able to govern alone.
That result means the former chancellor will need a partner to govern, either linking up again with the far right or tapping the Greens. Buoyed by the recent global call for action to curtail climate change, the Greens surged in a reflection of a trend across Germany and elsewhere in Europe.
A People’s Party coalition with the center-left Socialists would also be possible numerically, but that was viewed as unlikely, an outcome unwanted by either party. [...]
The Freedom Party won 16 percent of votes, a loss of about 10 percentage points from the 2017 election, reflecting continuing fallout from the video that surfaced in May. The video showed the party’s former leader and erstwhile vice chancellor, Heinz-Christian Strache, discussing an exchange of favors with a woman claiming to be a Russian oligarch’s niece.
Last week, prosecutors in Vienna began an investigation into Mr. Strache on suspicion of embezzling party funds, a move that could cause further headaches for the party and make Mr. Kurz think twice about joining forces with it again.
Only about a third of all voters who supported Mr. Kurz wanted to see a return to a coalition with the far right, analysts said, but only a quarter want to see him go into power with the Greens.
Mr. Kurz has indicated he is open to teaming up again with the Freedom Party, which some analysts said may be a closer policy fit than his other choices.
“Based on an analysis of key issues, there is an 80 percent convergence between the People’s Party and the Freedom Party, while the People’s Party and the Greens only agree on about 20 percent of issues,” said Peter Filzmaier, a professor of politics at Danube University Krems.
But based on other parties’ performances at the polls, Mr. Kurz may opt to look leftward in an attempt to appeal to younger voters who threw their support behind the Greens.
“After what we have seen today, a coalition between the conservatives and the far right has become less probable and a coalition with the conservatives and the Greens more probable,” Mr. Filzmaier said.
The Socialists, another possible governing partner, suffered their worst showing since 1945, earning only 21.8 percent support based on the results so far. The party’s decision to call a no-confidence vote against Mr. Kurz in May, ushering in a caretaker government, led to acrimony between the center-right and center-left that analysts said made a potential coalition between the two unlikely.
The Greens returned to Parliament with 14 percent of the vote, two years after infighting caused the party to split and crash out of the legislature, having failed to clear the 4 percent hurdle necessary to earn seats. [...]
The jump in support for the Greens meant the party would have enough influence to enter into a two-way coalition with Mr. Kurz’s conservatives. But that would require compromise from all sides, especially on essential issues where the former chancellor has championed a much tougher line, including migration, domestic security and the welfare state. [...]
Full analysis on The New York Times
Related on EUROPP: Austria’s snap election: Kurz is back and so are the Greens