|
|
[...]But the deadlock that replaced four decades of government alternating between the PSOE and the rightwing Popular party (PP) has not yet been broken. The leftwing bloc has 10 seats fewer than in April and is 21 seats shy of a majority. The political centre has collapsed amid a dangerous surge by the far right. The spectre of the secession of Catalonia is still polarising Spain, especially after the supreme court last month sentenced nine separatist leaders to long prison terms for sedition. There is blame aplenty to be shared for the current impasse.
After April’s election, there was a narrow path to a PSOE-led coalition of the type now being tried. Pedro Sánchez, the Socialist leader and caretaker prime minister, would not agree to a formal alliance in which Podemos sat in the cabinet. Now, however, Pablo Iglesias, the Podemos leader, will be a deputy prime minister and his party is expected to take three ministries.
The preferred option then of business and Spain’s EU partners was to have a stable, centre-left coalition between the PSOE and Ciudadanos, an ostensibly liberal and staunchly unionist group that emerged from Catalonia on to the national stage once Podemos broke the two-party mould five years ago.
But Albert Rivera, the young Ciudadanos leader who had backed the PSOE in 2016 when Podemos was trying to supplant the Socialists as the leading party of the Spanish left, vehemently ruled out any pact with Mr Sánchez. Mr Rivera instead saw his chance to overtake the PP and become the standard-bearer of the right. He came close in April but Ciudadanos was almost obliterated on Sunday, reduced from 57 to 10 seats. Mr Rivera has resigned and left politics.[...]
The neo-Francoist splinter from the PP known as Vox is Spain’s third largest party. In 2016, Vox won 47,000 votes, or 0.2 per cent of the total. In April it won 2.7m (10 per cent and 24 seats) and on Sunday 3.6m votes — 15 per cent and a shocking 52 seats.
A major reason for Vox’s rise, aside from Catalan nationalism fuelling Spanish nationalism, is the way Mr Rivera and his callow PP rival, Pablo Casado, have preferred to play sorcerer’s apprentice rather than statesman. They have “normalised” Vox. [...]
Spain is polarised. There is an even narrower path to a Socialist-led government. It will depend on support from non-separatist regional and nationalist groups — and the abstention of some separatist parties. There is a question-mark over the stance of Ciudadanos, and indeed its future relevance.
Full article on Financial Times (subscription required)
Related:
Pedro Sánchez for Project Syndicate: Catalonia, Spain, and Europe are Better Together
Verfassungsblog: The End of Parliamentary Government in Europe