Graham Bishop's Blog: Commission President Debate on Europe-wide TV on 15 May 2014

16 May 2014

Watching the great debate last night, the central question in my mind last night was: are we looking at the next President of the European Commission? Clearly, there were only three real candidates in the frame: Juncker, Schulz and Verhofstadt.

Did they have the right personal qualities to do the job? Yes – but (in my view) only Verhofstadt has the vision and charisma to project “Europe” to the 500 million people of Europe as THE way forward from the mess of the recent past. Juncker has the disadvantage of having been a central player during the entire period when the seeds of the mess were sown, and then the bitter fruits harvested.

• However, the whole process was unsatisfying in key respects: Tsipras’ blatant hijacking of a European event for the purposes of Greek national electioneering will not have raised the standing of Greece in the eyes of the rest of Europe.
• The format of 1-minute statements meant that no complex arguments could be developed – and the crisis of Europe is indeed complex.
• The limited air time for each candidate prevented any serious interrogation of the arguments of others. As a result, candidates were able to make bold (and emotionally appealing) claims about creating jobs but could not be probed on the precise polices that would cause these jobs to appear. In the current era of excessive public spending, it is the private sector that will create durable jobs. How will it be encouraged?

Despite such criticisms, these debates were an excellent first step towards creating a genuine European demos. The question now is what the Heads of Government make of the decisions of the `people of Europe’ when they meet immediately after the results of the election? As the polls stand today, neither the EPP candidate (Juncker) on the right of the political spectrum, nor the S&D candidate (Schulz) on the left will command the necessary 376 votes - a majority of the 751 members in the Parliament - to approve the Commission President. Rather they will each get around 210 – depending on party discipline. Will all the Left vote for the Right candidate? Or vice versa? Doubtful! The chances of the centrist candidate – Verhofstadt – drawing sufficient support from both sides to reach the magical 376 remain non-negligible.

If the Heads of Government decline to accept the verdict of the people, will the people's freshly and directly elected representatives decline to give 376 votes to the Heads of Governments' choice? A change in the political nature of Europe is at hand.

Graham Bishop - Consultant on EU Integration - Political, Financial, Economic, Budgetary

****

Blow-by-blow commentary: Dave Keating - European Voice link

The broadcast: link

Rolling Blog

© Graham Bishop