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Allies of Berlusconi, 76, have been threatening for weeks to bring down the left-right coalition of premier Enrico Letta if a Senate committee meeting this week votes to bar him from parliament. In recent days, political sources have suggested the centre-right leader is backing away from an immediate government crisis and elections for fear this could misfire.
A poll in La Repubblica newspaper by the Demos organisation suggested this fear could be well-founded, showing Italians split three ways as they were in an inconclusive election last February which led to a damaging two-month impasse before President Giorgio Napolitano forced the parties into a cross-party coalition of the old rivals.
The poll showed the centre-left PD on 28.5 per cent, just ahead of Berlusconi's People of Freedom (PDL) on 26.2 per cent. This is a contrast to polls before Berlusconi started his campaign against the conviction, which had the PDL well ahead.
The Demos poll showed that almost 50 percent of those surveyed had a positive view of the Letta government, which has struggled to pass vital economic reforms because of constant squabbling between the coalition members - exacerbated by the row over Berlusconi's conviction. This suggests they would look dimly on anybody forcing a crisis.