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Changes to the EU, especially those connected to the UK’s absence from the eurozone’s institutions and meetings, mean the rest of the EU may be growing into a set-up where the UK’s absence is taken for granted. Refusing to consider Britons for top positions, especially those connected to the eurozone, might seem practical. But it risks worsening Britain’s isolation. This set-up may appeal to those in the EU who want Britain out of the EU. But a passive expulsion would be a difficult strategy, bringing with it a series of dangers for both Britain and Europe.
The UK is not going to be leaving anytime soon. Even if Cameron’s gets his way and is able to pursue a renegotiation, most estimates place the date of any ensuing referendum in 2017. If the British vote to leave then the withdrawal clause of the EU’s treaties – Article 50 – provides a timeframe of two years for withdrawal negotiations. During those two years, longer if an extension were agreed, the UK would exercise the same powers as any other Member State, excepting those directly relating to negotiations over its departure. Britain will still be sitting in meetings, casting votes and potentially vetoes in 2019, possibly even later.
Even if the UK does withdraw, Britain will not vanish from the EU’s politics, just as the EU will not vanish from British politics. This will certainly be the case if the UK withdraws to some formalised second tier of a new EU.
Whether in or outside the EU, freezing out London makes as much practical sense as the UK steadfastly ignoring the EU. On a range of issues, especially defence and international finance, the UK will continue to play a central role.
With the forthcoming European Parliament elections likely to see a surge in nationalist and Eurosceptic views, isolating Britain could stem, but not stop or solve, the wider problems facing the EU. The British Question, like a range of questions facing the EU, will not simply go away if ignored.