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[...] I believe that a Brexit deal remains more likely than unlikely. There is more that unites the two sides than separates them and, regardless of what is said in the build-up to negotiations, a no-deal scenario would be a disaster for all.
Yes, one of the early challenges will be to find an agreement on the rights of EU citizens in the UK and vice versa. I remain hopeful that this could be agreed in the coming months, but delivering certainty will require a more honest discussion of the complexities at stake. A glance at the commission’s draft negotiating directive makes it clear that this issue will not be solved in a couple of ministerial meetings after the UK general election in June.
Both sides will need a precise and comprehensive agreement that provides citizens with genuine and permanent guarantees. The rights at stake do not just relate to residency, but also include access to healthcare, social security and guarantees regarding non-discrimination legislation. All of these rights, some acquired over decades, will need a mutually agreed enforcement mechanism, as will the divorce agreement more generally.
These issues will not necessarily be easy or quick to resolve, but they are not insurmountable. The EU has put its negotiating demands on the table. We do not know yet what the position of the incoming British government will be, nor what the UK’s future immigration system will look like. Thus, the list of uncertainties is at risk of remaining lengthy. It is also important that, as the European Parliament has requested, EU negotiators propose a form of citizenship for UK citizens who want to maintain their link to the EU after Brexit.
The debate about a financial settlement is likely to be complex and heated. The EU will not seek to punish the UK or demand one more euro than is due. As Donald Tusk, president of the European Council, has made clear: Brexit will be punishment enough. Yet, it is only fair that the UK agrees to pay its share of outstanding legal and budgetary commitments and liabilities. It would be wrong for EU taxpayers to be asked to pay Britain’s bar bill. A financial agreement should be in the UK’s reputational interest too, as it seeks to find a new role for itself in the world.
The third priority for the European Parliament in the first phase of negotiations is working out a solution to protect the Good Friday Agreement, in all its parts, and to avoid the re-introduction of a divisive hard border on the island of Ireland. This may ultimately require a comprehensive political solution, possibly even a special status for Northern Ireland. Many Irish citizens residing in Northern Ireland will continue to enjoy rights as EU passport holders, but how will their rights, including the right to vote in European elections, be safeguarded in practice?
It is unlikely that the European Parliament will agree to start discussions about a future relationship, unless a rock-solid arrangement addressing these issues is in sight, which is effective, enforceable, non-discriminatory and comprehensive.
As the European Parliament has proposed, the EU and the UK should aim to achieve a future association agreement, which is ambitious and strong. This should be a positive partnership, which goes beyond trade, to include security and defence co-operation. Mrs May has made clear Britain is leaving the EU but it is not leaving the continent of Europe. Nevertheless, as with any complicated divorce, preliminary discussions about a future partnership can only start when there is clarity about how the existing relationship is dissolved. [...]
Full letter on Financial Times (subscription required)