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From a position of relative strength, dominating a compliant parliament which had accepted Brexit, Theresa May is now struggling to cling on to her job, unsure whether she will even be able to form a minority government.
After a night of political drama which saw Labour’s vote share surge by 10 points, halving the 2010 deficit, three things now seem certain: May is mortally wounded; Jeremy Corbyn is safe as Labour Party leader for as long as he wants; and Britain is in for a prolonged period of political instability which may only be solved by a second general election.
If Brussels had come round to the prospect of an unyielding two-year Brexit negotiation under May — grating in its parochialism maybe, but at least grown-up — they now face the nightmare prospect of a new partner across the table or a weakened May beholden to her backbenchers and a small retinue of Northern Irish MPs.
A hung parliament — in which no single party commands a majority — is certain. Her future as prime minister hangs by a thread. She could be gone by the end of the day. A second general election could be called within months — taking place as early as August. Brexit is also now up in the air — as even David Davis admitted.
The Brexit secretary told Sky News at 2:30 a.m. that the election was, in part, about getting a mandate for “the sort of Brexit we want.” It was also designed to give the government more time to complete the process by ensuring that the incoming administration would have a clear five years before having to call an election.
He suggested the U.K. government may have lost a mandate to exit customs union and single market. “[Our manifesto] said we wanted to leave the customs union and the single market, but get access to them. That’s what it was about, that’s what we put in front of the British people, we’ll see by tomorrow whether they’ve accepted that or not,” he said.
Nigel Farage was quick to warn that he would re-enter the political fray if Brexit was softened. “We may well be looking down the barrel of a second referendum.”
The Democratic Unionist Party in Northern Ireland — potential kingmakers if the Tories are to remain in power — will look to soften Brexit around the edges, particularly in order to ensure there is no threat to the soft border with the Republic of Ireland, so crucial for the region’s economic security.
May clings on
[...] Calls for the prime minister to go began pouring in. Anna Soubry, a former minister, said May needed to “consider her position”. On ITV, former Chancellor George Osborne, whom May fired on taking office, did not hold back: “The manifesto, which was drafted by her and about two other people, was a total disaster. It must go down now as one of the worst manifestos in history by a governing party. I say one of the worst, I can’t think of a worse one.”
Corbyn was also quick to call on May to go. “This election was called in order for the prime minister to gain a larger majority in order to assert her authority. The mandate she’s got is lost Conservative seats, lost votes, lost support and lost confidence. I would have thought that’s enough to go, actually, and make way for a government that will be truly representative of all of the people of this country.” [...]