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[...]If the May government cannot get Brexit through parliament, all sorts of things become possible. The worst case is that Britain would crash out of the EU without a deal, with chaotic consequences.
But there are also other possibilities. Britain could revise its negotiating position in line with the wishes of parliament. The government could fall, leading to a general election and a fresh approach to leaving the EU. Or Britain could defer or even withdraw its application to leave the EU.
The unfolding of this process may have started last week, when the House of Lords voted to amend Brexit legislation by asking the UK government to negotiate a customs union. The Lords can be overruled by the Commons. But it is distinctly possible that a sufficient number of pro-EU Tories in the Commons will also vote for a customs union — and so defeat the government.
The customs union issue is critical because it marks the frontier between a “hard” and a “soft” Brexit. The May government’s determination to give Britain the freedom to negotiate its own trade deals after Brexit has led it to stress repeatedly that it intends to leave the customs union.
However, the government’s opponents argue that this kind of “hard Brexit” is folly because it will disrupt trade and industrial supply chains with Europe. It would also probably make it impossible to avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.
The hard Leavers say that Brexit without leaving the customs union is pointless. [...]Many Leavers suspect Remainers of using the customs union issue as a wedge to stop Brexit altogether. But it is not inconsistent if Remainers argue for a soft Brexit as the best option currently on the table, while some also hope that Brexit could ultimately be stopped.
Some British officials surmise that the prime minister may even secretly want the House of Commons to vote for a customs union. Their argument is that Mrs May knows that a customs union makes sense, but that she cannot currently argue for this option for fear of provoking a rebellion by Tory Leavers.
On the other hand, if the prime minister’s hand were forced by a parliamentary vote, she could “reluctantly” embrace a customs union.
The danger with this Machiavellian strategy, however, is that it could backfire. Tory Leavers have been prepared to swallow many unpalatable concessions — including vast continuing payments to the EU — in order to achieve their ultimate goal of Brexit. But losing British sovereignty over trade policy might be a concession too far. Leading cabinet ministers such as Boris Johnson, the foreign secretary, and Liam Fox, the trade secretary, are thought to be ready to resign over the issue. That could trigger a leadership challenge to Mrs May, and the fall of the government. [...]
Full article on Financial Times (subscription required)