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[...]A reshaping of British party political structures is conceivable but very unlikely by the autumn of this year, when the Commons is due to have a “meaningful vote” on Brexit, whether on a withdrawal agreement that Mrs. May has managed surprisingly to cobble together; or on the absence of an agreement leading to a catastrophic Brexit. There is some reason to believe that this vote or at least some aspects of it will go against the Conservative government. Its inevitable response will be a refusal to rescind the Article 50 notice of withdrawal and an attempt simply to await the much-heralded date of 29th March 2019, when Brexit will become an automatic reality. The majority of MPs who on this hypothesis have voted against the government will then have three essential choices: acquiesce in the government’s obduracy; vote in a new government; or seek another way of keeping the issue of Brexit alive, for instance by a new government negotiating mandate or another referendum. It would be tempting, but humiliating for the Parliamentary majority to accept the first option; tribal party loyalty is probably still too strong in the Commons to allow for the second option; and the only realistic way of pursuing the third option is likely to be the holding of a referendum on the “Brexit terms” given the unlikelihood a Conservative government would accept an (anyway probably impracticable) instruction from MPs to reopen the Brexit negotiations.
People’s second vote
[...] Nothing could be more logical than for Parliament now to stipulate, on a cross-party basis, that a new referendum should be held to consult the electorate further before Brexit becomes irreversible. This referendum would admirably combine the twin principles of Parliamentary sovereignty and popular sovereignty. The shrill and implacable opposition of many supporters of Brexit to any such proposal suggest that they harbour an entirely selective commitment to either the parliamentary or the plebiscitary aspects of democracy.
If the MPs hostile to leaving the EU on the terms (or absence of terms) proposed by Mrs. May conclude that a new referendum to confirm or set aside the finding of the 2016 referendum is the proposal around which they can all rally, an immediate further question that will present itself is the text of the referendum. From the point of view of those most hostile to Brexit, it would clearly be desirable if one of the options contained on the ballot paper were to withdraw entirely the Article 50 notification. Such an option would also correspond to political reality. Our EU partners are extremely unlikely to be willing to prolong the uncertainty surrounding Brexit by beginning to renegotiate its terms after an unfavourable referendum vote. It may, however, be politically and administratively simpler to confine the choices on the ballot paper to straightforward acceptance or rejection of the proposed Brexit terms, thus avoiding the accusation that the referendum of 2019 is simply a repeat of 2016’s consultation. Passing the necessary legislation to hold a referendum in the first half of next year would anyway be a time-consuming process. It would be made yet more protracted by avoidable discussions on the precise text of the question to be put, or even whether some form of differentiated choice should be offered the voters. Our EU partners would very probably agree to an extension of the Article 50 negotiating period in order to allow a referendum, but it would be unwise to test their patience too far. They would undoubtedly prefer the referendum to be held before the European Elections in May or as soon as possible afterwards.
Party political realignment
Moreover, even if the ballot paper contained no formal option to remain within the EU, the political earthquake caused by a popular vote to reject the government’s terms would certainly be sufficient to throw into fundamental doubt the whole Brexit project. It is inconceivable that after such a rebuff by the electorate the Conservative government of the day could brazenly continue with its intention of leaving the EU by the automatic operation of the Article 50 procedures. British politics would look very different on the day after a referendum if the electorate had voted to reject the Brexit terms presented by a Conservative government. It is in any case difficult to believe that the present anomalous structures of the largest British political parties could survive unscathed the divisions of a referendum campaign. All those who favour a general realignment of British party politics have a powerful incentive to promote a further European referendum with its likely fragmenting effect on the established parties. The public divisions within the Conservative and Labour Parties on European policy have been of unparalleled scale over the past two years. A referendum campaign is likely to make these internal tensions unbridgeable, irreparable and permanent.
The virulent hostility of many among those favouring Brexit to countenance in any circumstances a further referendum suggests to cynics a lack of confidence in their ability to repeat their narrow victory of 2016. But in fairness it must be said that many opponents of Brexit are unsure that public opinion has yet shifted from its preferences of 2016 far enough to guarantee a vote against the Brexit terms in 2019. Some moreover fear the possibility that a narrow vote next year against Brexit would simply perpetuate and intensify the rancid European debate in public and political opinion, with no possibility of resolution. Despite these undoubted challenges, pro-European MPs will nevertheless later in the year be confronted with a fundamental question of conscience: whether they will take the path of least resistance and permit a form of Brexit which they firmly believe to be damaging to the country, solely in deference to a narrow victory in an advisory referendum two years ago that was won on the basis of a doubtful franchise, probable illegality and certain mendacity. It will be a chastening day for all those who care about representative democracy if they are prepared in these circumstances to do nothing beyond futile protest. A further referendum appears the only politically realistic and materially attainable option available to MPs wishing to go beyond mere protest. Many factual and political arguments would now be available to the pro-EU side in a 2019 referendum that were absent in 2016. It might well be that the reconfiguration of British politics likely to emerge from a referendum would enable a more rational and enlightened European debate thereafter. There are of course many problems and uncertainties involved for pro-Europeans in staging a referendum next year. Withholding one will cause for them even more problems and the uncertainties will only be replaced by yet more damaging certainties. For those who wish to campaign effectively against what they know to be the national self-harm of Brexit, a referendum on the withdrawal terms is not just the best option, it is the only realistic option.
Full article on The Federal Trust