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The truth is that the dilemma, created by the people via the referendum vote of 2016 and again in the general election of 2017, can only be resolved by the people through another referendum. Leavers oppose a further referendum which, they say, disrespects democracy. But a further referendum is the only democratic solution – as the Brexiteers themselves recognised in 2016, when they feared the remainers would triumph. [...]
The problem, of course, is to make sure the public can choose between the various options. Yet, as Rees-Mogg declared in 2011, “we can, in our wisdom, work out how to phase a referendum – or series of referendums – if necessary”. Justine Greening, the former education secretary, has proposed a referendum with three options – Brexit according to the deal negotiated by the government, a no-deal Brexit, and remain. But that has been criticised as dividing the Brexit vote, and could fall foul of the so-called Condorcet paradox, where the electorate end up voting for something they didn’t want.
It would be better to have a two-stage referendum – as was held in New Zealand in 1992 on electoral reforms – which would avoid the paradox. The first stage would ask voters whether they still wished to leave the European Union. If they did not, no second stage would be necessary.
But if they did, the second stage – to be held perhaps a week later – would ask whether voters favoured the deal negotiated by the government, or some alternative form proposed by the Brexiteers. The outcome would give parliament a clear indication as to how to proceed.
Of course, the greatest obstacle to a referendum is Theresa May herself, who has said that she will not call one under any circumstances, even though it could prove a life raft for her party – holding her government together and providing legitimacy for whatever the public decide. No good politician should ever be frightened of changing their mind. “In the course of my life,” Winston Churchill once remarked, “I have often had to eat my words, and I must confess that I have always found it a wholesome diet.”
Europe has destroyed the last three Conservative prime ministers – Margaret Thatcher, John Major and David Cameron. The issue could now destroy the current one as well. The only prime minister to have unequivocally triumphed over Europe is Harold Wilson who, in 1975, faced with a similarly divided party, called a referendum.
In 2018, the interests of May and of the Conservatives coincide with those of the country. The people must be asked to resolve the dilemma which parliament cannot resolve, so as finally to exorcise the European issue from the body politic. [...]