Bruegel: Europe should avoid a no-deal Brexit

24 July 2018

Authors argue that the UK's White Paper - which they consider a serious proposal for the country’s future relationship with the European Union - puts the ball in the EU court as it now has to say what kind of relationship it wants to establish with its neighbour.

What should the 27 stance be? We think that they should neither stick to rigid positions nor hide behind red lines. They should not pretend that only off-the-shelves solutions are available for building a relationship with Britain. Instead, they should seek and obtain:

• Serious guarantees on the implementation and the enforcement of the proposed customs arrangement for goods;
• Serious guarantees on a lasting overall regulatory approximation and convergence;
• Clarity about the way ECJ judgments would be applied in matters pertaining to the functioning of integrated markets;
• Safeguard clauses – including a say 10-year probation period that would make the future agreement reversible if the UK were to opt for regulatory competition.
• A financial contribution to the EU budget commensurate with the depth of the relationship.

Negotiating such a deal is likely to be a difficult process that might well be impossible to achieve over the next few months. But agreeing on a direction should be possible by the autumn. And a two-year transition period until the end of 2020, during which the UK would stay in the single market and the customs union, would allow for negotiating a sensible relationship for the future that is in the geostrategic interests of everyone in this part of the world. [...]

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