|
|
[...]It looks, therefore, like neither side of the negotiating table is likely to budge, in which case we have to accept that the odds today are increasingly in favour of No Deal.
The paradox here is that avoiding a hard Brexit is perhaps the only option that would achieve a majority in the British parliament. In order to avoid No Deal, it would be necessary to put No Deal on the table, so that it becomes a direct object of choice and not a hidden default option. [...]
One possible way to untangle the political impasse is to have a second referendum. The issue of the referendum had previously met resistance, not least from the prime minister herself, but is increasingly emerging as a realistic option. James Blitz of the Financial Times has considered what the referendum could ask, offering three variants:
But there is another way, which the recent ECJ decision on revoking Article 50 may just have brought to the fore. Following this decision, Sir John Major has called for Article 50 to be revoked immediately. We fear that such an action would lack legitimacy and that a referendum would be the minimum requirement to ensure sufficient backing.
If the referendum were the path to pursue, there is then an additional variant to what could be asked, and that is a yes/no question:
The main significance of the ECJ ruling is that it recognises a country’s sovereignty and therefore its right to change its mind. At the same time, it provides important clarifications on how and when such an option should be exercised. The court has put in place conditions in order to ensure that such an action is not opportunistic or expedient, as it would have to be “unequivocal and unconditional”. But it also provides clarity in terms of where it leaves this whole process and the UK’s position in the EU. The withdrawal process would be stopped and the UK would continue its membership status as is, without losing its opt-outs or rebate. At the same time, it would be providing reassurance to the EU, in that the UK’s exercising of this option would mean that it has changed its collective mind on the issue of Brexit.
If you are a Remainer you would welcome such an option. If you had voted for Brexit but have changed your mind given the information available two-and-a-half years later, then again this would be a welcome step. If the ‘Yes’ vote prevailed and the government pursued this option, all uncertainty would cease and only awkwardness would remain, till everyone learned to move on.
If you are a committed Brexiter, then the ‘No’ option still allows you to proceed on the current track. If a ‘No’ vote prevailed, it would provide clarity on two things: first, it would seal the UK’s wish to leave the EU – a certainty that would be helpful in moving forward. Second, it would bring the default position out of obscurity: there would be only two options ahead and that is May’s deal or No Deal. Parliament would then need explicitly to choose one of the two, instead of just rejecting one.
But that brings us back to our starting point. If there is a majority against a no-deal Brexit, then this referendum may be what the prime minister needs to pass her deal. Either way, there would be clarity in terms of what the British actually want, an issue that can be of great help in this process.