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[...]“The sense of a slow momentum toward Irish reunification has become a fast momentum now,” said Paul Gosling, a Londonderry-based English economist who recently published a book outlining a 10-year plan to reunify Ireland.
And lurking in the background of the debate is the possibility that the imposition of a hard border between north and south, with physical checkpoints, could reignite the violence that largely ended in 1998 — fears that were underscored by a recent car bombing in Londonderry and several hoaxes.
Given the choice between that and reunification, people across the island of Ireland have shown a preference for unity, though neither government has expressed the same enthusiasm.
Not helping matters, the regional assembly for Northern Ireland, based in Stormont, has been suspended for two years because of political feuds and scandals. And Northern Ireland’s fragile balance of power between Irish nationalists and pro-United Kingdom unionists has been upset, if not altogether destroyed, by the agreement of the conservative Democratic Unionist Party to prop up Prime Minister Theresa May’s minority government in London. [...]
The combination of a hard border and political deadlock could weaken the peace agreement and possibly lead to a renewal of the violence that took more than 3,500 lives during the Troubles, analysts say. That, in turn, might heighten pressures for reunification. [...]
Deirdre Heenan, a professor of social policy at Ulster University in Londonderry, said that the effect of a suspended regional assembly and out-of-touch leadership was a “political vacuum” in Northern Ireland. “And history will tell you that political vacuums give rise to extreme voices,” she said.
The dangers were on display in January, when a car bomb exploded in front of a courthouse in Londonderry. The police suspected a splinter group called the New Irish Republican Army. No one was injured, but dozens of people were forced out of their homes after the explosion and a series of car hijackings that followed.
Such paramilitary-style attacks, commonplace during the Troubles but rare since 1998, have struck occasionally in recent years, and the threat of Brexit makes them all the more menacing.
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Still, the path to reunification is not at all clear. For that to happen, a majority of voters in Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic would need to back a public referendum called a border poll — and the British government has discretion over when to call a vote. Many pro-United Kingdom loyalists remain vehemently opposed to Irish unity, and even some pro-Irish unity moderates are not ready to give up the benefits of being in Britain.
The most optimistic republicans see a border poll happening within a decade. Yet, this week, Mary Lou McDonald, the leader of the main republican party, Sinn Fein, said that in the event of a no-deal Brexit, “there will be an absolute imperative, a democratic imperative, to put the issue of Irish unity to the people by way of a referendum.”
Nonetheless, some analysts have started reckoning with the constitutional dilemmas posed by a united Ireland. Of those, none is more important than how to protect the rights of what would be a minority of pro-United Kingdom loyalists who see themselves as British, not Irish, said Mary Murphy, who studies Northern Ireland politics at University College Cork. [...]
Colin Harvey, a law professor at Queen’s University Belfast who is drafting a paper about the legal questions around reunification, said the issue had “gone from the margins to the mainstream very, very rapidly as a result of Brexit.”
“Planning and preparation should start now, in some sense so as not to replicate the Brexit mess,” he added, referring to the false promises and voter confusion surrounding Britain’s withdrawal from the bloc.
But pro-British unionists have dug in. Despite the Democratic Unionist Party’s campaigning for Brexit, many other unionists are trying to save their place in the United Kingdom by making their movement more inclusive.
They are rejecting party orthodoxy by defending gay and abortion rights. And they are pitching nationalists on the pragmatic case for staying in the United Kingdom: Keep your British benefits and free health care, and leave talk of reunification for another day.
“Is unionism under more threat? Yeah, it certainly is, and Brexit has created that increased threat,” said Brian Dougherty, a unionist community worker involved with the Londonderry Bands Forum, a group that lobbies on behalf of the local bands that are an integral part of Protestant culture.
But, he said, “Talk of a border poll has moved beyond what’s right for the country to being very opportunistic.”