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Rebel Conservatives believe there are now enough MPs across the House of Commons to pass an amendment that would require May to extend article 50 rather than allow the UK to leave without a deal.
At least four cabinet ministers, almost a dozen junior ministers and many others on the government payroll are understood to be prepared to back the motion proposed by the Tory MP Sir Oliver Letwin and Labour’s Yvette Cooper, due to be debated on Wednesday. A senior source close to those plotting the rebellion said there was no way the members of the government would resign voluntarily and May would have to sack them.
The move comes with moderates emboldened by the formation of the Independent Group, which some see as providing leverage to push back against the influence of the European Research Group of hardline Brexiters.
The cabinet ministers David Gauke, Amber Rudd, Greg Clark and David Mundell told the prime minister in a private meeting earlier this week that she would have to delay Brexit if there was no Commons majority for her deal by 27 February.
Speaking in Edinburgh on Thursday, Mundell told an audience he would do “everything I can and whatever I deem necessary to prevent a no-deal Brexit”, and refused repeatedly to rule out resigning from the cabinet if necessary.
May has already survived two rounds of resignations by the Brexit-supporting cabinet ministers David Davis, Boris Johnson, Esther McVey and Dominic Raab, but a wave of sackings would plunge the government into crisis at a crucial time for the Brexit talks.
Pro-Brexit MPs said the outcome of next week was unpredictable but, if it came to the vote, May would have to get rid of the rebellious ministers.
One cabinet source said: “It would be a huge mistake not to sack them. It would be effectively conceding we had lost control of the party.”
To avert a crisis, No 10 is racing to secure changes to May’s withdrawal deal with the EU that will satisfy hardline Eurosceptics and the Democratic Unionist party, enabling parliament to approve it. Their central demand is the removal of the Irish backstop from the text of the agreement because it could indefinitely bind the UK into a customs union. [...]