UK in a Changing Europe: Will a no deal Brexit lead to the break-up of the UK?

01 October 2019

In a new briefing paper, published by the Bennett Institute for Public Policy and the Centre on Constitutional Change, researchers explore some of the main potential ramifications of no deal for the domestic Union.

Authors suggest that no deal would indeed destabilise the UK’s already fragile territorial politics, and has the potential precipitate a full-blown crisis.

Specifically, they conclude that:

• There is very little political support for no deal outside England. This course stands in opposition to the expressed wishes of large majorities of members of the Scottish Parliament and National Assembly for Wales, and five of the main parties in Northern Ireland.
• The short-term repercussions of no deal would be felt most heavily in Northern Ireland. Managing this will require the UK government to take on additional powers to direct civil servants.
• It is highly likely that a no deal Brexit would immediately lead to fresh calls for a border poll on Irish unity and for a second Scottish independence referendum.

Researchers also map out the different possible events that might become flashpoints in both the Northern Irish and Scottish cases, and illustrate the sequences of episodes that might ensue. 

Briefing paper

Full press release

Related article on The Guardian: Brexit is giving Welsh nationalism a new popular appeal

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