Financial Times: Brexit has lowered the bar for election victory, study finds

01 November 2019

Brexit has splintered the UK political landscape to such a degree that Boris Johnson could win the upcoming general election by seizing marginal constituencies with as little as a quarter of the vote share in those seats.

The Best for Britain/Focal Data 2019 model predicts that the median seat winner’s vote share will be 39 per cent, and forecasts that 15 seats will be won with vote shares of less than 30 per cent. 

In two cases, a party is projected to win a seat with less than a quarter of the votes, such is the level of competition between multiple parties in certain parts of the country. [...]

Research by NatCen has found that voters now identify more strongly with the Leave and Remain camps than with political parties. The prospect of tactical voting along Brexit lines threatens to further muddy the waters at this election. [...]

The Best for Britain/Focal Data MRP survey predicts the Conservatives are on course to win a 78 seat majority at next month’s general election with 364 seats, ahead of Labour on 189. [...]

Full article on Financial Times (subscription required)

© Financial Times