|
Whatever the outcome of the Brexit negotiations, there will be profound
economic, political and geopolitical implications for the EU.
While
the EU as a whole might be better placed than the UK to absorb the
economic shock of a no-deal, the fallout within the EU will be uneven,
resulting in winners and losers. The asymmetrical impact and
differential capacity and willingness of national governments to
mitigate the shock could exacerbate regional disparities and unbalance
the EU’s internal level playing field. As such, it might become more
difficult to maintain the same level of EU unity post-no-deal.
The
EU-UK relationship can be expected to become more conflictual and
competitive, particularly in the absence of common rules under a
no-deal. Regardless of whether a deal is reached, the UK government’s
willingness to breach international law is likely to have a lasting
effect on trust and has brought an element of precariousness into the
relationship. This lack of trust and predictability will also affect the
EU’s and UK’s ability (and willingness) to amplify the other’s voice in
the geopolitical and security sphere.
All these negative
repercussions will be intensified should the talks end in an acrimonious
divorce. In any case, the potential for a no-deal by accident or design
remains high. The only way to secure a deal at this point is for Boris
Johnson to make a double U-turn on his red lines and the Internal Market
Bill. Nevertheless, even so, the deal would be a thin and precarious
one with low levels of trust, while the threat of further treaty
breaches would impede the normalisation of the EU-UK relations. The EU,
therefore, must anticipate a much more conflictual and difficult
relationship, no matter the eventual outcome.
Read the full paper here.