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Since the UK left the EU on 31 January 2020 there have been many suggestions for building on the basic arrangements laid down in the Withdrawal Agreement and the subsequent Trade & Co-operation Agreement. A number of Parliamentary inquiries have highlighted deficiencies in the current arrangements and pointed the way towards improving them.
The outcome of the Northern Ireland Assembly elections in May 2022, when Sinn Fein became the largest party for the first time and the Democratic Unionist Party refused to agree to the Assembly electing a Speaker or establishing an Executive, is important because of its impact on the Northern Ireland Protocol included in the Withdrawal Treaty. The UK Government’s response was to propose legislation enabling parts of the Protocol to be suspended unilaterally. In any event, the Assembly is due to decide by a simple majority of its members in 2024 whether or not the Protocol should continue.
The UK-EU relationship since Brexit has been characterised by tension, disputes and disappointments. The EU has sometimes been dogmatic and has succumbed to a corrosive mistrust of UK motivation. The UK has been confrontational and has prioritised its sovereignty concerns in a way that has prevented the emergence of compromises. The parties have argued over the Northern Ireland Protocol, fishing licences, the supply of vaccines, the interpretation of trading rules and the treatment of European citizens in the UK (and of UK citizens in some EU countries). Both parties have disappointed businesses with their apparent lack of enthusiasm for making the co-operative arrangements in the Trade & Co-operation Agreement (TCA) work effectively and the Horizon programme of scientific research and the movement of performing artists have suffered collateral damage. Until the hostile atmosphere between UK and the EU is addressed, it will be hard to achieve improvements in the overall relationship.
Nonetheless, there are have been important developments since the UK left the EU that may change the situation in the medium-term. In this paper we look briefly at the most momentous development since Brexit, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and then consider in more detail ways in which the UK-EU post-Brexit relationship could be improved if there was the political will on both sides to do so, including a determination to rebuild trust.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 was a profound shock to the post-Cold War order in Europe, upsetting the assumptions of a generation and throwing into sharp relief challenges to the EU and NATO and necessitating radical changes in the future direction of their foreign, membership and trade policies.
In the EU long accepted notions about policy were swiftly abandoned. Germany dropped its policy of seeking to maintain close economic and political ties with Russia in the belief that mutual economic dependence would increase German security without having to expand its armed forces. The EU agreed for the first time to use its European Peace Facility mechanism to send military equipment and financial aid to Ukraine. Six packages of economic sanctions against Russia, in concert with the US and the UK, were adopted in short order. A continent very considerably dependent on Russian coal, gas and oil began to restrict its energy imports from that country and to look rapidly for ways to end such imports altogether. Over six million Ukrainian refugees have fled the country and over five million were accepted by EU countries after the decision was taken to waive visa requirements.1
NATO was re-energised by the Russian attack, entering into detailed co-operation between its members in support of Ukraine. The shadow of the Trump presidency was lifted with the alliance finding a renewed unity. Finland and Sweden, two neighbours of Russia which had been neutral countries for many decades, are poised to join NATO.
Three other countries, Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, applied to join the EU. Although accession is a lengthy process, the applications were immediately referred to the European Commission for an opinion, which will be delivered before the meeting of the European Council on 23-24 June, when these countries may be accorded candidate status.
As many commentators have noted, the greatest irony of the Russian attack on Ukraine was that far from rolling back NATO involvement in eastern and central Europe, it unified the West behind a determination to maintain the alliance and its borders in the face of Russian revanchism and to support Ukraine by any measures short of direct military involvement.
The UK Government’s vigorous policy of support for Ukraine, with cross-party backing, has reminded EU Member States, particularly those in central and Eastern Europe, that the UK still has a key part to play in any issues relating to European security.
It is against that background that this paper reviews some important possible elements of an improved post-Brexit UK-EU relationship....
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