|
|
The Protocol was negotiated and agreed by the EU and the UK because both sides acknowledged that there was a problem with having Northern Ireland outside of the EU single market and customs union, and the Republic of Ireland inside them, while leaving the border open. And since the one thing that everybody agreed on was that there could not be any checks, infrastructure or customs officials on the border, some other way would have to be found to ensure that goods moving from Northern Ireland to the Republic conformed to the rules of the EU’s market.
This problem, of course, stems from Brexit itself. In 2018, the then Prime Minister Theresa May tried to negotiate an agreement in which the whole of the UK would effectively remain aligned to the relevant parts of the single market and the customs union, if no other solution could be found during negotiations over the long-term relationship, but that plan failed. And that left, as the only alternative, keeping Northern Ireland in the same parts of the single market and doing checks in the Irish Sea between Great Britain (GB) and Northern Ireland (NI). Thus, the Northern Ireland Protocol was born.
Once the Protocol was signed, however, the problems began as the then Prime Minister Boris Johnson declared that:
“There will be no checks on goods going from GB to NI, or NI to GB”.
He also called the Protocol “a good arrangement ... with the minimum possible bureaucratic consequences”, which was “fully compatible with the Good Friday Agreement”.
It is understandable why the Protocol was created, but it has led to economic and political problems.
Tweet thisThe government’s own impact assessment, however, said something very different. “Goods arriving in Northern Ireland, including from Great Britain would undergo regulatory checks in accordance with EU rules” and an internal Treasury document was even more stark: “customs declarations and documentary and physical checks … will be highly disruptive to the NI economy”.
It is understandable why the Protocol was created, given the dilemma it was trying to solve, but it has led to economic and political problems. The Protocol has created challenges for businesses trying to send goods to Northern Ireland from Great Britain. And politically, the Protocol has resulted in the collapse of power-sharing in Northern Ireland, with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) refusing to enter the executive or even allow the Northern Ireland Assembly to meet, on the grounds that they object to Northern Ireland being treated differently to the rest of the United Kingdom in ways that undermine unionist identity.
The current war of words between the EU and the UK over the Protocol is deeply unhelpful; it’s like an acrimonious divorce. There is a complete lack of trust – the very thing that is needed to solve the problem – and until trust is restored, it is hard to see anything changing.
The EU argues it reached an agreement with the UK less than three years ago and now British ministers are trying to get out of it by unilaterally taking powers to over-ride the Protocol, while the UK argues that the EU wants to apply the Protocol’s rules in a wholly disproportionate way. The UK’s argument does not, however, square with what happened when the Protocol was originally negotiated and the UK suggested checks in the Irish Sea. And at the end of 2020, Michael Gove, who then led on negotiations over the Protocol, said he had reached an agreement with Maroš Šefčovič (the European Commissioner in charge of negotiations) “which now means that the Protocol can be implemented in a pragmatic and proportionate way.” It is no wonder that the EU distrusts the UK and has no idea what it will do next.
And yet the fact that the Northern Ireland institutions are not functioning is a real political problem for power-sharing and for stability in Northern Ireland, which the EU needs to recognise.
Although relations between the UK and the EU are now in a pretty bad place, it is possible to find a way forward, provided both sides are prepared to move and then engage in hard, detailed negotiation. The issues are indeed complex, but if politicians were capable of negotiating the historic Belfast Good Friday Agreement – an extremely finely balanced exercise in political courage, ingenuity and leadership – then surely they can craft a solution here.
So, what needs to happen?
The Northern Ireland Protocol Bill
The first thing the UK should recognise is that the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill is the wrong way to go about fixing the problem; indeed it is the biggest obstacle to reaching a deal with the EU. The Bill, currently going through Parliament, would allow the British government to disapply key parts of the Northern Ireland Protocol.
The Bill is clearly inconsistent with the Withdrawal Agreement that the UK negotiated and signed with the EU and it should be withdrawn....
more at CER