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The Office of National Statistics (ONS) released its monthly trade report for the UK for September 2022 and Q3. Imports and exports of goods and services fell slightly from last month, but overall remained relatively flat. Additional comparisons were added this month to include price versus volume measures to account for dramatically changing prices.
Total imports and exports trends
The fall in non-EU imports was due to falling gas prices and not a drop in the volume imported. Looking at Q3 (July-September), while import price measures rose by 1%, the import volume measures fell by 1% of GDP. Total import levels seem to be climbing at a staggering pace this year; however, this is primarily due to inflation and price increases (see figure 1).
Total volume measures for imports show a different story, with imports rising at the end of 2021 before becoming stagnant for most of 2022. Import and export volume measures have still not reached pre-pandemic levels. Total export volumes dipped after the end of the transition period but have crept up, with this quarter only 1% of GDP higher than at the end of the transition period. This is in line with the latest GDP data that shows the UK economy shrinking in the third quarter of 2022 and lagging behind all other G7 countries.
EU v non-EU trade trends
Non-EU price imports continued to rise this quarter, mainly in August. However, as previously mentioned, this can be explained by increasing gas prices. Compared to price measures, volume measured for non-EU imports slightly increased during the pandemic and has only fractionally decreased this year.
While EU price imports fell sharply before the end of the transition period, they have grown since that time, matching previous levels (see figure 2). The story remains the same when looking at volume measures instead of price. EU imports have remained relatively stagnant, only slightly below pre-pandemic and end of the transition period levels (see figure 3). Export price and volume levels for EU and non-EU continue to be in parallel with one another. No fundamental shift has occurred due to the end of the transition period or the pandemic...
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