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While much of Labour’s policy agenda remains undecided, when it comes to Brexit Keir Starmer could not be clearer. In a recent interview, he said the current trade deal with the EU is “too thin” and that its scheduled review in 2025 should be used to create a “closer trading relationship”.
The problem, however, is that the party will not get results simply by asking nicely in Brussels. And it’s not clear they have fully realised this.
Labour has proposed a number of measures to add to the EU deal, including an agreement on veterinary standards; mutual recognition of conformity assessments and professional qualifications; improved labour mobility arrangements; and a security pact.
This is a carefully calibrated position, designed to woo business without alienating Leave voters. Labour is willing to go further than the Conservatives in signing supplementary agreements to ease post-Brexit friction in specific sectors such as manufacturing and food imports. At the same time, however, the party can reassure Leave voters that it has no intention of breaching red lines round control of money, borders and laws.
So far so sensible. But it’s far from clear the EU will be receptive to this approach.
Labour is pinning its hopes on the aforementioned review of the UK-EU trade deal (TCA), scheduled for 2025 or 2026. David Lammy says they will use this to go through the agreement “page-by-page, seeking ways to remove barriers and improve opportunities for business”.
Yet, as our new report argues, the EU does not see things the same way. For Brussels, the review should be a brief technical exercise, taking stock of the agreement’s implementation without an obligation to change anything.
The EU considers the TCA ‘a very good agreement’. It favours trade in goods (where it has a surplus with the UK) over trade in services (where it has a deficit) and delicately balances the interests of 27 member states. Moreover, there is significant Brexit fatigue in EU circles as well as a long list of higher priorities. There is little appetite to revisit the TCA.
Therefore, should Labour come to power, it will need to persuade the EU to negotiate. That means figuring out what the EU might actually want...
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