Brexit 'Weekly'

06 October 2016

Brexit, IMF, sterling crisis, TTIP, EU reform, European Safe Bonds, collateral eligibility criteria, low interest rates, banking union and more.

  Jump directly to
Graham's Articles, Comments & Speeches
Political
Financial
    About this email

  Articles from 29 September 2016 - 06 October 2016

  Grahams Articles, Comments & Speeches
 
 
PM May to the Conservative Party: Hard Brexit
PM May’s speech to the Conservative Conference: It reads like Hard Brexit; it’s spun as Hard Brexit so it probably is Hard Brexit because it is completely inconsistent with EEA membership. For the avoidance of any doubt, this inconsistency was repeated four times!  View Article
 
  Political
 
 
BBC: Theresa May to trigger Article 50 by end of March
The UK will begin the formal Brexit negotiation process by the end of March 2017, PM Theresa May has said.  View Article
Financial Times: Theresa May aims for a soft-ish Brexit landing
The time for denial is past — moderate Leavers and Remainers need to unite, writes Iain Martin.  View Article
Financial Times: Theresa May has chosen the right time for Article 50
The prime minister has given away just enough details to keep her party happy, writes Sebastian Payne.  View Article
TheCityUK:The impact of the UK's exit from the EU on the UK-based financial services sector
A report published today by global management consultancy, Oliver Wyman, analyses Brexit’s potential impact on the UK-based financial services sector. Leaving the Single Market could cost up to 50% of EU-related activity, £5BN of tax revenues per annum and put 4,000 jobs at risk.  View Article
IMF sees subdued global growth, warns economic stagnation could fuel protectionist calls
Global economic growth will remain subdued this year following a slowdown in the United States and Britain’s vote to leave the European Union, the IMF said in its October 2016 World Economic Outlook. It forecasts a slight pickup in 2017, driven mainly by emerging market strength.   View Article
Financial News: Bank of England deputy governor says uncertainty will hit investment
The impact of Brexit on the UK economy has been “more moderate” than the Bank of England originally feared. Ben Broadbent, the deputy governor for monetary policy has told an audience at The Wall Street Journal.  View Article
Financial Times: UK looks for transitional trade deal after Brexit
Ministers are looking to negotiate a transitional trade deal with the EU — including possibly paying a single market access fee to Brussels — to avoid a “cliff-edge” for exporters and the City of London after Brexit in 2019.  View Article
Bloomberg: Banks to miss out on special favors in May’s Brexit plans
British financial-services companies will get no special favors in Brexit negotiations from Prime Minister Theresa May, who wants to change the relationship between the government and the City of London.  View Article
City AM: Passporting tops the Brexit wishlist for financial services firms
The study by professional services firm EY found that over two-thirds (68 per cent) of all policy wishlists financial services firms have made public following June's vote have made reference to maintaining passporting for goods and services.  View Article
CEPS: EU financial market access after Brexit
CEPS' Director Karel Lanoo writes that the “equivalence” assessment allow much less access than UK-licensed firms enjoy today thanks to the EU's Single Market, but it could still provide a fairly bleak basis on which the City might continue to thrive as a global financial centre in Europe.  View Article
Investment Association: Increasingly global UK investment hub revealed as Brexit preparations begin
The Investment Association’s latest flagship survey has revealed an increasingly global investment hub based in the UK, as preparations to exit the European Union begin.  View Article
OMFIF: On the road to a sterling crisis
The UK has been no stranger to wrenching sterling crises, which it all the more difficult to understand current complacency in British academic and policy-making circles surrounding the likely fallout from a ‘hard’ Brexit.  View Article
CER: Why the 27 are taking a hard line on Brexit
Britain’s partners have forged a common response to the forthcoming Brexit talks. Given their tough line – refusing ‘pre-negotiations’ and insisting that Britain cannot have the single market without free movement – how should Theresa May’s government respond?  View Article
Paul Goldschmidt: Brexit and TTIP
Boris Johnson's strategy - who continues to proclaim that Britain will be restored to its former status of “world power” as the foremost champion of global free trade - is likely to complicate trade negotiations either between the EU and the UK or between the latter and the rest of the world.  View Article
EurActiv: Crafting a way forward for the European Union
The decision of Britain to leave the EU has put the European idea to the test. Now is the time to openly discuss the state of our union and the way forward, writes Petros Fassoulas.  View Article
Financial Times: They have come to bury free trade, not praise it
The discussion of British auto manufacturing’s worries that Brexit will increase trade frictions is a good illustration of the huge challenges Brexit presents and the naivete that characterises the government’s approach to solving them, writes Martin Sandbu.  View Article
BBC: Italian PM Matteo Renzi warns UK over EU rights
It will be "impossible" for Brexit talks to result in a deal that gives Britons more rights than others outside the EU, Italy's PM has told the BBC.  View Article
Commonwealth to be ‘honest broker’ as member states move from ‘shock to solutions’ after UK vote to leave the EU
"We are ready to support countries through tough post-Brexit trade negotiations", Secretary-General Patricia Scotland will tell Commonwealth finance ministers. The organisation published "Brexit: Its implications and potential for the Commonwealth," an analysis of the current uncertainty.  View Article
Institute for Government: Planning Brexit
The UK Government will need an extra 500 new staff, costing up to £65 million a year, just to plan its approach to Brexit, according to research by the Institute for Government thinktank.  View Article
EUROPP: Hard Brexit? Only if it’s free
A new survey shows most Britons are not willing to pursue hard Brexit if it will cost them personally. If the economic conditions gets tough, there is a two-thirds majority willing to accept current levels of EU migration to retain access to the single market.  View Article
Financial Times: London’s insurers rush to cover the Brexit bases
In April this year, after months of careful consideration, planning and number crunching, insurer Beazley shifted its headquarters from Dublin to London. The move would, executives said, make Beazley more efficient — partly because there would be less to-ing and fro-ing between the two cities.   View Article
 
  Financial
 
 
Paul Goldschmidt: “European Safe Bonds”: The latest in a series of false good ideas!
The EU’s first priority must be to secure its own unquestioned survival so that the EU and the Euro become a State with a currency similar to that of other Sovereign issuers. All attempts to circumvent this inescapable logic would only enhance the likelihood of the Euro’s ultimate collapse.  View Article
ECB: Changes to collateral eligibility criteria and risk control measures for unsecured bank bonds
The European Central Bank decided on changes to the collateral eligibility criteria and risk control measures applicable to senior unsecured debt instruments issued by credit institutions or investment firms or their closely linked entities, known as unsecured bank bonds (UBBs).  View Article
ECB's Mersch: The challenge of low interest rates for banks within the banking union
The European Central Bank Yves Mersch's speech focused on the design and the achievements of the banking union and on the challenging environment of low and negative interest rates.  View Article
CEPS: Ultra-low or negative yields on euro-area long-term bonds: Causes and implications for monetary policy
The importance of the ECB’s policy in driving down rates in the euro area is widely assumed to be substantial. But even the ECB does not attribute more than a one percentage point decline in rates to QE. The author of this study believes that the impact of QE has been much smaller.  View Article
 

  Graham's tweets

© Graham Bishop