Brexit Weekly

29 November 2018

EU27 leaders endorse the Brexit withdrawal agreement and the political declaration on future relations, vote in UK Parliament set on 11 December, BoE dire warnings for a disorderly Brexit, Treasury and NIESR forecast for Britain economy not looking good, ESMA supports continued access to UK CCPs.

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European Council (Art. 50) conclusions, 25 November 2018
EU27 leaders endorsed the Brexit withdrawal agreement, as presented by the negotiators of the EU and the UK, and approved the political declaration on future EU-UK relations, which accompanies and is referred to in the withdrawal agreement.  View Article
Draft Political Declaration setting out the Framework for the Future Relationship between the EU and the UK
European Council President Donald Tusk sent the EU27 Member States the draft Political Declaration setting out the Framework for the Future Relationship between the EU and the UK.  View Article
POLITICO: EU to UK: Lose-lose Brexit deal is best you will get
“This is the only deal possible,” Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker declared, issuing a pointed message to the British House of Commons shortly after EU27 leaders approved the deal agreed by Theresa May.  View Article
Bloomberg: Date set for Theresa May’s Brexit showdown with hostile Parliament
UK Prime Minister Theresa May will put her Brexit deal to Parliament for a decisive vote on Dec. 11, but after her plan was savaged from all sides, the signs are she’s on course to lose.  View Article
The Guardian: Dominic Raab: Theresa May's deal worse than staying in EU
The former Brexit secretary Dominic Raab has conceded Theresa May’s Brexit deal would be “even worse” than staying in the EU.  View Article
The Sun: Theresa May could suffer a 200-vote defeat when the Commons decides on her Brexit deal — dealing a fatal blow to her Premiership
A Cabinet minister told The Sun: 'Theresa is still being told she can win this by the people around her in No10. They are going to bring her down'  View Article
The Guardian: Government could fall if Brexit deal fails, says Jeremy Hunt
The odds of Theresa May getting her Brexit deal through parliament are “looking challenging”, Jeremy Hunt has said, adding that it was possible the government could collapse if this failed to happen.  View Article
The Sun: Amber Rudd and Michael Gove plus Labour rebels are planning for UK to join the EFTA if MPs reject PM’s Brexit deal
The Sun reveals that Amber Rudd and Michael Gove have formed a cross-Brexit alliance to push for membership of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA).  View Article
Bloomberg: BOE warns disorderly Brexit could unleash a savage recession
The UK could suffer the worst economic slump since at least World War II if Prime Minister Theresa May fails to get her Brexit plan past lawmakers and the country crashes out of the European Union without a deal, warned the Bank of England.  View Article
Financial Times: Philip Hammond acknowledges Brexit will leave UK economy worse off
Philip Hammond said that Theresa May’s Brexit deal would make people worse off in economic terms, telling the BBC there was no version of leaving the EU that increased prosperity.   View Article
GDP to be 4% lower in the longer term than it would have been had the UK stayed in the EU, new NIESR report reveals
A new NIESR report estimates that if the government’s proposed Brexit deal is implemented, then GDP in the longer term will be around 4 per cent lower than it would have been had the UK stayed in the EU.  View Article
UK in a Changing Europe: New research shows economic and fiscal consequences of the Brexit deal
New research by experts estimates that the Brexit deal negotiated by the Prime Minister could reduce UK GDP per capita ten years after Brexit by 5.5%, compared to remaining in the EU, and the cost to the public finances would up to 1.8% of GDP.  View Article
Financial Times: BoE stress test shows British banks able to withstand sharp recession
British lenders would be able to withstand a global recession more severe than a disorderly Brexit, according to the results of a Bank of England stress test.  View Article
FCA launches further consultations ahead of the UK’s exit from the EU
FCA published a further consultation on its approach to the UK’s exit from the EU. The paper sets out additional proposals to prepare for the possibility the UK leaves the European Union on 29 March 2019 without an implementation period.  View Article
ESMA: Managing risks of a no-deal Brexit in the area of central clearing
The ESMA Board of Supervisors supports the continued access to UK CCPs to limit the risk of disruption in central clearing and to avoid negatively impacting EU financial market stability.  View Article
Financial Times: Bank of France governor pushes Paris as post-Brexit clearing hub
France’s central bank governor has warned that emergency rules to save the derivatives market from chaos in a no-deal Brexit must not last more than a year, and urged Brussels to speed up work on rules that could force more of the industry to move to the continent.  View Article
OMFIF: Post-Brexit UK will find no sympathy
Regardless of whether it endures in its current form or is amended in the coming weeks, UK Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal opens the door to crucial further negotiations with the EU states and WTO members.  View Article
Bloomberg: Trump says Brexit deal could hurt plans for US trade pact
President Donald Trump dropped a rhetorical bomb on UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s efforts to get a Brexit agreement through parliament, warning the deal she reached with the EU could jeopardize Britain’s ability to strike a trade pact with the US.  View Article
Bloomberg: UK's other Brexit fight may bar it from $1.7 trillion WTO deal
UK businesses stand to lose access to a $1.7 trillion public procurement market if signatories to a World Trade Organization accord this week block Britain’s application for membership, which will lapse after it leaves the European Union in March.  View Article
Financial Times: Britain clears trade hurdle ahead of Brexit
British trade officials said that the WTO members had given their “provisional” support to the UK’s continued membership of the Government Procurement Agreement, a 47-country deal that opens up nations’ public contracts to foreign bidders.   View Article
Financial Times: EU lawyers tell ECJ that Article 50 cannot be unilaterally revoked
EU lawyers have insisted in court that the UK’s decision to leave the bloc cannot be unilaterally withdrawn, warning that such a right could be abused by governments seeking a better deal from Brussels.  View Article
Financial Times: Spain seals deal with EU and UK on Gibraltar
Spain has reached an agreement with the EU and UK clarifying the status of the territory of Gibraltar, paving the way for leaders to approve Britain’s Brexit treaty at a summit in Brussels.  View Article
BBC: Brexit: Theresa May's 'letter to the nation' in full
Prime Minister Theresa May has written a letter to the nation setting out why she thinks the public should back her Brexit deal. May said she "will be campaigning with [her] heart and soul" to win the vote in Parliament to "get behind this deal."  View Article
 

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