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In 365 days, Britain goes over the cliff edge of departing from the EU – with a 'transition' to unknown arrangements. If regrets set in afterwards, it will be too late as we will have to re-apply under Article 49 - just as any other applicant. When those `unknown arrangements’ become somewhat clearer during negotiations this summer, “the people” may well look at the implications and decide for themselves whether they want to proceed over the cliff.
The evidence is building that the people have little confidence in the Government or Prime Minister’s handling of the negotiations, fear the UK will get a bad deal, and consequently they personally will be worse off. “The people” are increasingly likely to want to vote on the deal.
After a historic and prolonged national debate about the importance of our links with our closest neighbours, a substantial vote to Remain would surely put Great Britain back into a positon of enormous influence within one of the world’s major powers – political, cultural and economic. EU27 is now nearly eight times the size of the UK economy whilst EU28 (including the UK) matches the size of the US economy and is about half as big again as China. Influencing such a power offers genuine sovereignty in shaping the world around us.
The Remainers have yet to set out a compellingly positive vision of why “the people” should turn out in larger numbers and emulate the 1975 Referendum 2:1 vote to Remain. There is still time to put the positive case.
With such a positive vision, it is probable there will be no Brexit.
Full paper available for consultancy clients here