The Huge Opportunity for “Remain”

09 September 2019

150-200 Seat Majority: the Message from 100 Years of First-Past-the-Post Elections.

Summary and Conclusions

• A `collective’ of Remain-supporting candidates could achieve a Parliamentary majority of 150-200 seats – if the long-run history of the “First Past The Post” (FPTP) voting system is any guide Table.
• Such a result would flow from the share of the popular vote in May’s European Parliament election being replicated with a doubling of the turnout at the General Election. According to Kellner’s calculation, the popular vote split 55:43% in favour of Remain when 17 million people actually went to the polls and made a decision. Currently, electors see themselves along a Remain/Leave axis, rather than left/right.
• If the General Election produced such a clear-cut popular vote and consequent Parliamentary majority, then it would be easy to argue that the new Parliament had been mandated by “the will of the people” to revoke the Article 50 application forthwith. This is the only way the Brexit torment can be ended instantly.
• Parliament as a whole must now publish a consolidation of the outstanding factual analysis done by the House of Commons “Exiting the European Union” Committee and the House of Lords European Committee. There must be a summary in easy-read format for widespread public dissemination.
• The facts cannot sweep away the cumulative emotional impact of the tsunami of fake news and “disingenuous” statements of recent years. But it can remove any excuse for not having ready access to the highest-quality factual analysis – thereby helping to restore Parliament’s reputation.

© Graham Bishop