IoD: Hung parliament causes plunge in business confidence, but little appetite for another election

12 June 2017

The first poll of business leaders since the General Election reveals a dramatic drop in business confidence and huge concern over political uncertainty, and its impact on the UK economy.

The nearly 700 members of the Institute of Directors who took the survey are looking for any political certainty that can be found and are keen to see quick agreement with the European Union on transitional arrangements surrounding the UK’s withdrawal, and clarity on the status of EU workers in the United Kingdom.

The overall priority for the new Government, according to IoD members who have taken the survey since noon on Friday, must be reaching a new trade deal with the European Union. On the domestic front, work to deliver a higher skilled workforce and better quality infrastructure is considered vitally important. [...]

The key findings of the survey:

• 65% of IoD members believe uncertainty over the make-up of the Government is ‘a significant concern’ for the UK economy, with a further 27% describing it as a ‘slight concern’ – a total of 92% therefore believing it to be a concern
• There has been a negative swing of 34 points in confidence in the UK economy from our last survey in May. While 20% are optimistic about the UK economy over the next 12 months, some 57% are now either quite or very pessimistic – a -37 ‘net confidence’ score. This compares with May, in which 34% registered their optimism, and only 37% reported pessimism – just -3
• A majority (59%) believe a further election later this year would be somewhat or very unwelcome. Only 23% felt a further election would be welcome

On the policy front:

• Asked to choose three areas of Brexit negotiations which should be prioritised by the new Government, more than half – 58% - chose agreement on rights and entitlements for EU citizens in the UK and vice versa. In joint-second, negotiating an early agreement on transitional arrangements and securing ‘zero for zero’ tariffs were both chosen by 38% of business leaders
• Asked specifically about transitional arrangements, some 86% of business leaders felt striking a deal on that issue was ‘somewhat’ or ‘very’ important
• Asked to prioritise three policy areas for the new Government, 72% chose ‘reaching a new trade agreement with the EU.’ Half – 49% - chose education, skills and training, and a further 35% chose modernising infrastructure

Thinking of their own organisations rather than the economy at large:

• More than three quarters, 76%, believe political uncertainty is either a significant or a slight concern for their organisation;

40% are optimistic about the year to come with regards to their own organisation, with 23% pessimistic. This +17 confidence score contrasts with the +36 figure in our May survey

Full results

© Institute of Directors