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High-tech industries could see production decline by anything between 3.5-10.6 per cent, depending on the Brexit deal agreed. For medium-high-tech industries, the slowdown could be as large as 13.1 per cent.
In contrast, production output of medium-low-tech industries may face a more modest decline of 0.2 per cent and under some scenarios could actually see an expansion in domestic production by 2.2 per cent.
The new report - the most detailed independent analysis yet of the impact of Brexit on UK manufacturing – has stark implications for the UK’s new Industrial Strategy, which aims to support economic growth and drive productivity through R&D and innovation.
By modelling five Brexit scenarios - from a ‘soft’ Brexit with Single Market membership, to a ‘hard’, no-deal outcome – across 122 manufacturing sectors, the study is the closest indication to date of which individual sectors are likely to be most affected by different Brexits.
A no-trade-deal Brexit would see manufacturing output drop by an average of 5.5 per cent and industry prices increase by five per cent.
In fact, none of the five Brexit scenarios that the team modelled would lead to a positive outcome for UK manufacturing on average. [...]