|
|
The best the UK can expect over the year is uninspiring growth remaining at its current level of about 1.5 per cent, even if the economy eventually enjoys a modest rebound on the back of a deal with the EU, the FT’s annual survey on the UK’s economic outlook suggests.
A majority of the 81 economists, polled between December 17 and 21, did not give a firm prediction for growth in the coming year, despite last year correctly anticipating a slowdown to 1.5 per cent growth in 2018. Many said forecasting for 2019 was impossible given the “comprehensive” and “chronic” uncertainty that had become “a way of life” in the UK, especially when likely Brexit outcomes were binary: either no deal or no Brexit.
“Given the political shambles . . . the outlook is anything from lacklustre to catastrophic, but who knows?” said Diane Coyle, professor of public policy at Cambridge. Nina Skero, head of macroeconomics at the Centre for Economics and Business Research, said that whatever its long-term effects, “in 2019, Brexit will be either bad or awful for the UK economy”.
The majority of those who ventured a numerical forecast expected growth of no more than 1.5 per cent over the course of 2019, against a backdrop of a slowing global economic expansion. With the scheduled EU exit set for March 29, a significant minority warned that the economy could stall or shrink in the first quarter of the year if the government took Brexit talks to the wire, leading businesses to freeze investments and consumers to delay spending. [...]
Full survey results on Financial Times (subscription required)
Related article on Financial Times: Economists predict 2019 UK rate rise — if there is smooth Brexit