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In an official document only published after repeated demands by the former Conservative MP Anna Soubry, the government also revealed it was behind on contingency planning for a third of “critical projects” in relation to business and trade.
The latest no-deal notice states:
The economy would be 6%-9% smaller over the next 15 years than it otherwise might have been, in the event of no deal, in line with Bank of England forecasts.
The flow of goods through Dover would be “very significantly reduced for months”.
With 30% of food coming from the EU, prices are likely to increase and there is a risk that panic buying might create shortages.
Only six of the 40 planned international trade agreements have been signed.
The document was published just hours after Theresa May was forced to promise two key votes, allowing MPs the option to reject no deal and to potentially delay Brexit for a short period, following pressure from remain-minded cabinet ministers. [...]
The no-deal notice said customs checks alone could cost businesses £13bn a year and that it was impossible to predict the impact of new tariffs. It said this was partly because the government’s communications to businesses and individuals about the need to prepare for no deal had not been effective.
It said small- to medium-sized businesses were not making basic preparations despite government advice to do so. Only 40,000 of 240,000 businesses that had no experience of customs or tariffs had registered for an economic operator registration and identification number. [...]
Related UK Government notice: Implications for Business and Trade of a No Deal Exit on 29 March 2019